Friday, September 28, 2012

Captian Ben's QE3: Record Low Mortgage Rates

Since Fed Chairman Bernanke has announced QE3, the spread between mortgage backed securities (MBS), and benchmark 10yr US Treasuries has all but been eliminated; which has pushed conforming mortgage rates to even lower record lows.

We now have the 30yr fixed at 3.40%, and 15yr fixed at 2.73%. Keep in mind, that QE3's $40 billion in purchases of MBS per month has just gotten underway, and there is no limit to the program in time or quantity. QE3 will continue until 'the economy improves'.

  • How low will mortgage rates go before they 'bottom'?

  • What effect will this have on housing prices short term, and long term?

  • When will Bernanke run out of 'gas' to keep manipulating the yield curve on US Treasuries and pump up mortgage backed securities, so as to keep interest rates low and asset/housing prices high?








(satirical graphics courtesy of WilliamBanzia7)



884 comments:




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Anonymous

said...

All of this will start changing right after the election.

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

MBW, what makes you think things will take a sharp turn after the election? Will interest rates go up? Will the FED stop QE/printing? Why? Do tell!





Anonymous

said...

No sharp turn. It will be gradual enough most will be unaware, while the voices of those who are aware will be muted. It is part of the Plan. Age and experience is what makes me think that. Good luck.

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

MBW, I trust and respect your age and experience. How would you answer the questions in the post?

-how low will rates go?

-what does it mean for prices?

-how long can the FED play this game?





Anonymous

said...

I have no idea. However, I expect to see things we have never before experienced in the US. Some will like the changes, others won't. I expect, over time, government and media propaganda will evolve regarding real estate -- the result being for the first time homeowners will be disparaged for their "success" in owning real estate.

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

Well the PERS bomb is finally exploding, and so will PROPERTY TAXES! Pay up tax slaves!!!

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/09/oregon_pers_hikes_schools_gove.html





Anonymous

said...

How does the PERS rate increase affect property taxes? It didn't say that in the article. I imagine income taxes will go up at some point to pay for it since it's a state program. But local property taxes?





Anonymous

said...

The Fed hand signals are the shizz! "Start Schlepping" too funny. Or rather it would be?

Already seeing impacts. The Mrs. had plans on going back to P.I for a visit w/ family and the Peso exchange rate went from 44 to 41 overnight.





Anonymous

said...

How will the PERS problem hit prop taxes? Read the part about how PERS expenses is consuming over ONE FIFTH of school district payrolls! Of course the tax levies will be sold as "for the children"! (retired children that is)





Anonymous

said...

That pic of Ben Bernanke w the flame coming out of his QE3 helmet blowing up the giant ass ballon is just plain priceless! Too freakin funny, and yet sad all at the same time.

Benny boy will never run out of 'gas', he owns the printing press of the global reserve currency. We will all just run out of purchasing power with what's left of our wages, savings, pensions, and 401ks.

Learn to save 'money' outside of the Fed system. Otherwise you are but a sheep to be sheared via inflation and then deflation.

None will get through this mess unscathed, but a small minority will make it w out getting wiped out completely if they plan accordingly. We all gotta eat...





Anonymous

said...

My fear too. Can't keep inflating the Fed's balance sheet without some consequences.

What would you do should the thing begin to hit the fan and:
a) you can move easily to other countries; and
b) you have some reasonable amount of liquid cash?

Would you stay here? If so, what type of assets would you buy with that cash?

If you were to emigrate somewhere else, to where?

-Anon





Anonymous

said...

Oregon is so screwed:

"Edward Shugrue lost $100 million of Oregon’s state pension fund during the credit crisis in 2008, within three years of getting the money to invest in commercial property debt. The retirement board took just 30 minutes last month to hand him another $125 million."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-30/oregon-rewards-cmbs-manager-who-blew-up-fund-in-2008-mortgages.html





Anonymous

said...

Not sure pulling up stakes and going native is really going to 'accomplish' anything?

What we now have is: Containment-gone-Viral..! If not averted and I mean SOON might as well start stocking the bunker.

You'll see retirees and those on fixed income trying to purchase their consumables 3 mos. out as surely teepee will run you more American Peso's down the line. That or they'll be like the two guys in the Bud comm. "Paper or plastic? Uh... PAPER!"

But after Trading Bubbles ( and a soft coup? ) who COULDN'T use a change of scenery for the next [inevitable] leg down? As always, I'll suggest the P.I. You can get by on English until you learn the local dialect. Culturally there's about an 80-90% overlap. Except for Easter, which looks like the last 10 mins. of Apocalypse Now. Grab a sleeping bag and 5th of Ginebra and don't come out til it's over. IMHO

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

DinOR,
I feel like an ignoramus. What does "P.I." stand for in this case?

-Anon





Anonymous

said...

Philippine Islands. Or if you're a REALLY hip sailor, you just say "Hangin' in the 'I' ".

Something of a HB there too I'm afraid. As per our current discussion, lots of foreign $'s, Euro's etc. seeking safe haven there.

www.islandsproperties.com

We built a modest beach house in the early 90's, about 1,200 s/f a few hundred yards from the Sulu Sea. Being just a few deg. N. of the equator, at least one wouldn't freeze to death.

A much MUCH healthier approach to the economy. I'm sure had this taken place 'there', Gov. would NOT have stepped in to float zombie banks. They've already had THEIR brush w/ Crony Capitalism during the Marcos years.

It's taken them a long time to rebuild after that and there's no desire to RETURN to it any time soon? It's fairly simple to start a small biz. to keep a rev. stream up and conserve and even build your savings. All the major banks now have access to online trading, their bonds are safer than anything WE are issuing.

Nice weather, nice people, great food.

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

PI. Great place! I was hanging on Magsaysay Blvd./Olongapo City one night in '72 or early '73 and went home with a girl I met. Just my luck, it turns out that was the night Marcos declared martial law. Couldn't get back to Subic until later the next day, when my girlfriend, who lived way out in the boonies, somehow arranged a police escort. The girls in the PI were the best!

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

MBW,

I'd often heard from the old timers that Martial Law was "the bomb". But for locals, it was the beginning of a long national nightmare. Ironically when I first arrived it had just been lifted. Unfortunately I see a LOT of perfect parallels to what took place there and what is currently taking place in the U.S.

One of the first things Marcos did was take total control of the media. So much of what is going on now isn't even being reported in the MSM. If more voters knew the full truth, this wouldn't even be close. Anyway, RE Blog.

For my money, always preferred the older homes there. Lots of mid-century modern's there w/ pools, courtyards etc. Everything today is modelled off a SoCal suburb/gated community. Snout houses w/ fake terra-cota tile roofs. No character whatsoever. Like here, they're "selling the payment" but mortgages are more like 7 to 10 years there.

Oh and don't pay a LICK of attention to those asking prices on "Viviun" and other int'l RE sites. Think HALF. Normally you put like a 4rd down w/ a 3 to 5 yr. payoff. Unless on an island you could walk to at low tide, everywhere pretty much has internet.

DinOR





Anonymous

said...


DinOr: It was 9/1972 (found it on the internet -- where else?) so at that time I was unassigned for about 10 days before shipping off to a new "assignment," which included being dropped from the air on a line! What a way to travel....On the martial law night I was way out in an area with sort of ramshakle houses on stilts. I have no idea where and would never have found my way back. All dirt roads. I just remember alot of commotion in the road outside the house after I got there, and it seems having me there was a big problem. I remember saying I better get out of there, and my girlfriend and her sister, I think, said no, I would get shot. Apparently, right after I took off from town (which was off limits to do, of course) the rest of the guys still in town were being rounded up and taken back onto the base for safety. And here I was away for 24 hours -- and nobody noticed. You would think there would have been more notice for US servicemen, but I guess not. I'm still not certain what uniform the guy that got me back was wearing, but I always thought it was local police. I didn't get to see many of the nice areas in the PI, but I heard about them. But I really liked it there. Wish I could go back. Should have stayed!

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

Ok, so real estate and the matter at hand - interest rates:

-30yr rates will bottom @ 3.0-3.2%, 15yr @ 2.0-2.25%
(watch for 40 or 50 yr mortgages, like car loans now going 6-7yrs)

-House prices/asset values will be supported by the low rates, but don't be surprised if some 'event' happens that shocks the nation. False flag. We had a recovery going until... Wages are key here. There is little risk of REAL prices rising if cost push inflation doesn't drive wages.

-the FED runs the show. They can make the dollar weak or strong as they choose. They are owned and run by the banks, and will buy all the fraudulent paper from the TBTF banks at par, until they are solvent once again. Savers and retirees stand to lose the most. BUT, don't be surprised if the 'event' described above coincides w a shift in strategy, where the assets are scooped up for pennies on the dollar and the folks in debt are toast.


First by inflation, then by deflation. The weak hands are shook loose, and the sheep get sheared coming and going...





Anonymous

said...

Does anyone else out there wanna take a stab at Monty's questions regarding where we and housing are headed?

1.) how low will rates go

2.) what happens to prices?

3.) when will the FED run out of gas?





Anonymous

said...

DinOR and MBW, your stories of yesteryear are entertaining, but how about imparting some of that sage wisdom you share on the masses here? How would you guys who've lived through more than a cycle or two play this? How would you answer the 3 questions in the post?





Anonymous

said...

I have no idea what will happen, and even less how I would play it, but I'll take a stab at it anyway:

1. Rates are about as low as they will go. I remember 16% interest rates in the 1970s. Probably will go there again.

2. Prices rise sharply. The vast majority of housing in places like "inner" PDX will be rentals, with very few owner-occupied. In a few years, like Europe, homeownership will be only for the rich. And it will not be safe to admit you own a home, as you will take a lot of heat for your greed. The government especially will not like you, and you will be competing with the government as a landlord, as the government will own a good portion of the properties out there. The Feds will ungentrify many inner neighborhoods as they take over a good portion of the real estate and make it low-income housing. PDX elitism regarding housing will vanish as that sort of behavior becomes no longer in sync with the new, more strict, socialist ideals. Liberalism and socialism will no longer mix, and the liberals will realize what a mistake they make -- only far too late to do anything about it.

The Fed will never run out of gas.

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

That's a legit question. As bubble bloggers noted going into '07, it's again time to take a long hard look at everything you own. WE insisted a number of money mkt. funds would "break the buck". Several DID for their MBS cr@p paper.

I can't say what 'to' own but I'm better at what NOT to own. Right now that's municipal bonds, regardless their "credit rating". They're TOXIC. Dump 'em. I know, easier said than done as your 401k may have like uh... (5) options, ALL of which have a weighting in those damned muni's. If that becomes the case, take their mmkt. option.

Insofar as 401K's in general, even w/ a change in leadership this Nov., there will STILL be pressure to in some way 'nationalize' them. They HAVE to. As we've said in the past, Vangard and Fidelity own 80+% of that mkt. So that's (2) phone calls. Those at lesser firms may have time to react. Likely they'll just be an 'insert' in your statement. More to follow. I know that comes off paranoid but the SOP has become, send up a few trial balloons, let the "chattering classes" fume and on a Friday we'll do a "doc dump" before the weekend! ( Kinda' like how we wound up w/ the HC 'Law' )

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

Bernanke, resistance is futile....





Anonymous

said...

Ok, so what would you guys do if you had to wind the clock back 20-30yrs in life, but battle present day? You have a young wife, 2yr old, and baby #2 coming this winter. You have 20-30% equity in a home at around 4% on a 30yr.

Sell into the spike? Rent from the gov? Prop taxes will go up? Cost of living?

Besides the energetic toddler and ornery prego mom, some of us have to plan 20yrs out, yet keep food on the table, utilities paid, mortgage/rent paid, and navigate this mess!

Did either one of you feel like the wheels were coming off in the late 70s/early 80s only to see another major growth cycle wash it all away?





Anonymous

said...

I'm overwhelmed by your question, because I don't know how to answer it. I've been alive since the late1940s when Harry Truman was president, and I've never been so concerned for young families and what might be in store for this country. But if you like your house and where it is, and plan to stay there, I would keep it.

In the early '70s when I was in your position, we didn't think about home prices, equity, interest rates, etc. PERS wasn't an issue, housing prices were always stable (and you didn't get rich off your house - or lose, either) and interest rates were just what they were - high. There were no ARMs or anything like that, and I never heard of a HELOC, and there was only one way to borrow on a house. I don't think anybody thought about how much their house was worth until they decided to sell it. We just didn't talk about those things. And the houses people bought were in their price range. And we didn't feel we were missing out if we weren't in a higher price range. We took pride in what we had.

I finally finished college at age 27 and we had 4 kids by the time we were 33 and lived in a 1200 sf house with one bathroom, and a huge yard, for over a decade, and were happy as can be.

Your generation may have been blessed with more stuff -- electonics, mobility, ability to live at home after age 18 (which was unheard of in my day - you would have lived under a bridge before that), and easier access to college (albeit with loans), but you have also seen financial meltdowns, housing busts and crooked people and politicians, and so much greed. We never saw that, and we still basically trusted the government. Well, we did have LBJ and Tricky Dick and the military draft (for men, anyway).

You will have to plan for the unknown, I think, so my advice would be keep it simple and enjoy the wife and kids. Save what you can and don't get into too much debt. And don't worry too much, because a lot of it is out of your hands, and worrying will make you sick. Try to stay healthy. Then you can deal with anything.

One thing I know I would do now if I knew what I know now, and had to go back and things were as they are today, would be to try to make a living in a smaller town in a part of the country with a lower cost of living, fewer people and a good community support system. Easier said than done, however, and in my case, my jobs for the first 20 years or so involved wearing a coat & tie and driving into downtown PDX. So I couldn't have done the small town thing without changing my occupation. Plus, both sets of my kid's grandparents were in Portland, and so we stayed.

In hindsight, I wouldn't worry so much about having a lot of relatives close by. It is highly overrated.





Anonymous

said...

Oops that was me, Movebackwest.





Anonymous

said...

Case-Schiller index continues to climb for Portland. Up 3.8% up YOY.

http://www.oregonlive.com/front-porch/index.ssf/2012/09/portland_and_us_home_prices_ri.html

Chart here --
http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_portland

Zillow shows increase also.
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/OR-Portland/r_13373/

It will be interesting to see if the rate of appreciation levels out or hits a seasonal dip this winter.

Again, this is the average that is climbing. Inner NE/SE Portland, for instance. Other places, like Salem, OR continue to drop. http://www.zillow.com/local-info/OR-Salem-home-value/r_20317/

Or climb much more slowly than the average, like Vancouver WA
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/WA-Vancouver-home-value/r_48215/

Cheers,

--Moneypits





Anonymous

said...

DinOR and MBW,
I lived in Latin America during the 80s, the lost decade. It was one crisis after another, with masses unemployed, high inflation and rampart poverty. I don't think it'll get as bad here, not even close. However, the older folks that have less career mobility and depend on savings will be crashed. Inflation of 20% can cut the value of your savings in half within 4 years. The young will do fine but the middle aged and older people will be in trouble.

DinOR, other than P.I. do you have any other recommendation? I'm a little concerned with the overpopulation and social unrest there.

--Anon





Anonymous

said...

Looks as if better real estate buys are to be had in Salem and Vancouver, if you are looking to buy.

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

Latin America.., in the 80's!? My hat's def. off to you. Having lived thru that other than ME should be a cakewalk for you.

Manila proper can be a stifling, choking soul stealing experience. Unless hi-rise living is your bag, I'd pass on it altogether. The bal. of the country resembles nothing like it.

My broader point was, whatever your appraisal of what is to come, how can any of us blame bubble bloggers/Fed watchers from wanting to take a BREAK during (1) of the downlegs/unending debacles? Canada is always just next door!

Ironically the majority of the homes Inner PDX -were- rentals during the 70's. I lived right off 28th and S.E Yamhill and everyone on my block lived in a rental. Getting a loan was near impossible. To support some of the observations MBW shared, the house across the street from us had a wannabe bike gang living there with a rotating cast of dozens.

Nearly every night they'd have a party w/ DJ sound sys. blasting and disco lights flashing but typically only a handful of people showed. Inflation made for very little discretionary income. Back then it was called being broke. Ultimately they were evicted/moved on. Lots of things just fizzled out.

DinOR





Park Placereal

said...

I have no concept where and would never have discovered my way returning.
Real Estate Search Seattle





Anonymous

said...

Moertgage rates drop even LOWER!!!

http://mobile.oregonlive.com/advorg/pm_29233/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=PUGigur0





red deer real estate

said...

Portland has one of the best place for real estate properties. The state has vast forest reserve.





Anonymous

said...

OK, what's worse, cheerleaders, trolls or REIC jukubots? I'll leave that up to ya'll.

Too nice a weather to blog. Get out and ENJOY everyone! We can b!tch about hopelessly f'd RE later...

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

In the inimitable words of Homer Simpson,

Oak Lee Doak Lee


Poboy





Haroon khan

said...

very nice blog.good news in this thanks for sharing the post.
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Anonymous

said...

Not me! ( I'm looking at Flats In Mogadishu! )

Clint..!

DinOR





Mortgage News

said...

There are several reasons for this constant change in mortgage rates . If you are looking for mortgage loans in the market you will soon find various mortgage news and, if you have not found one yet. Mortgage News2 gives you current information on mortgage news mortgage rates, Mortgage loan, and real estate’s including commercial and residential loan.
mortgage news





royal lepage realtor

said...

Oh, this is humorous, I love the way the figures shows the hand signals and also, the picture seems to be of Federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.





Anonymous

said...

Hi All,

Moneypits here.

Did ya'all read Njus's article in The Oregonian? Sales still high, Sept 2012 the highest Sept in # of sales since 2006.

http://www.oregonlive.com/front-porch/index.ssf/2012/10/home_sales_prices_drop_in_sept.html

BTW, what's up with the spammers? No spam filter, I guess...

Cheers,
Moneypits





online proeprty sale Lucknow

said...

Wow,nice post.it will be very interesting and informative to us.good thoughts for your work.we have news about real estate investing.





Anonymous

said...

MP, are you Njus?

--Anon





Anonymous

said...

As if MP will ever admit it. But MP/Njus certainly are pimps of the OAR/NAR.





Anonymous

said...

The 'number' of Sales is up..? Wow, that's really freaking GREAT. ( If you're a REALTWHORE )

So WHAT if they're mostly short sales? Hey, a commission is a commission, right! I've talked to so many people that have tried and tried to make an offer, likely a very REASONABLE offer only to have the lender REJECT it based on Appraisal.

They come UP with more, then the lender ASKS for more.

Wow, YEAH, sounds like a prudent use of your time! So for every (1) close there's 30 disappointed potential buyers. Getting jerked around by a rigged Fed/NAR/REIC. Most of us would rather w@nk it w/ 40 Grit sandpaper. No thanks.

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

Oh, and for every 30 SHUTOUT potential buyers ( 10,000 hours of mkt. research down the tubes! )

DinOR





george.

said...

http://www.zillow.com/visuals/negative-equity/#11/45.5400/-122.6768

fun map.





Anonymous

said...

killer map software george!





kk

said...

Commercial Real Estate closings is the major part we solve most of the time. We assist individuals and businesses with their legal needs in areas of Residential & Commercial Real Estate closings, Family Law, Immigration Law, Business Law, Wills & Estates and all kinds of Notary Services.





Anonymous

said...

And this, from our: Why Our Airport S@cks Worse Than Yours file;

PORTLAND, Ore. - Parking at the long-term lot at Portland International Airport will now cost you a little more.

The price is now $18 per day, which is $2 more than it was. The extra cost, which went into effect on Monday, will be used to improve and maintain airport parking and transportation in the future.

Airport officials also hope the rate increase will encourage people to use economy parking.

All other airport parking rates are remaining the same.


"Improve and uh... 'maintain'. Sounds VAGUE enough..!? Oh well, it's only $2 bucks so why are you bein' a little B about it? Have you seen how much home prices are going up in the ________ district!

Just a little somethin' extra to bleed you dry with our Death By A Thousand CUTS program. People should know by now to take their BIKES to the airport! I smell another feasibility study in the works?!

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

DinOR,
I see my rent, water/sewage, and other utility payments going up at least 10% during the past couple of years. Has my salary increase by the same or similar percentage? Hell, no!
I'm becoming apprehensive as to how bad it's going to get. Public Pension System is broke. You know WHO will have to pony up to fill in that hole, don't you?
Oh, and since I'm not old enough yet, then I can foresee that any SS money I was going to get will now be reduced by, what?, 80% or more?

--Anon





Anonymous

said...

Anon,

Commence Operation Nickel And Dime! We've long predicted we'd be seeing these "because we CAN" fees getting jacked thru the roof.

Been hearing some odd and disturbing OPERS developments but can't confirm just yet. Locally we're talking Pool Levy because we have a hole in the ground filled w/ water. This stuff is highly technical and beyond the comprehension level of the avg. voter.

So just STFU and PAY UP ya' buncha' damned yokels! Dealing w/ local gov's is like buying your teen driver a car. The forking over to 'buy' it is just the hitch you rube. Now you're on the hook for tires, oil, gas [insurance] and while we're at it, a 'bird' flew into my windshield, Dad.

If your town is contemplating same, tell them to open the fire hydrants during the (3) weeks out of the year it gets hot enough in Oregon to be almost naked. My plan is to fill our pool IN. With empty Corona bottles..!

Again, with all the private health clubs that are opening up, Parks & Rec. are about as pertinent as libraries. This way if they try to jack up the fees people just leave en masse.

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

Medford, OR has a $14 million pool levy on the ballot for TWO new pools, one each for the two parks in areas where I'm told nobody would ever take their kids -- bad enough, I'm told, but not Peninsula Park, Portland bad. Critics say the pools should cost $4 million - not $14 million. No way it will pass. I'm waiting to see if the zillon-dollar PPS levy passes and they rebuild my 1924 high school alma mater - Grant High in PDX...Glad I won't be paying for that!

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

DinOR,
Do you have any job leads that you could share for an overly educated, hard working, responsible and loyal person?

--Anon





Anonymous

said...

Anon,

From what I've heard there are any number of retail securities "head hunter" firms that are busy enough ( with all the unhappy brokers shackled to corrupt mega banks ) they'll basically take anyone off the STREET.

That end of the fin. biz is as cyclical as it comes, but now's a good run in that cycle. How hard can it be to find an unhappy financial planner..? The training is web-based and you can work from home. My buddy back in Chicago has been doing it for years. Good years are like $300k and bad years.., we talk about the White Sox!

Kick it around!

DinOR





luciferstek

said...

Mortgage rates can be changed as per time because of some reasons. Real estate market gets very ups and downs but people can trust on this market.





Anonymous

said...

DinOR and MBW --

Housing values continue to rise in Portland, as per this morning's Oregonian article. Up 3.5% year over year.

http://www.oregonlive.com/front-porch/index.ssf/2012/10/home_prices_rise_in_portland_o.html

Are they going up in Salem and Ashland yet? Or are you guys still waiting to hit bottom.

Cheers,
Moneypits





Anonymous

said...

DinOR wrote

"People should know by now to take their BIKES to the airport! I smell another feasibility study in the works?!"

There's good covered bike parking at the airport, but the route north of Lombard leaves a lot to be desired.

If they made improvements to the Cully Blvd/Alderwood connection, then you'd get much larger numbers of people bicycling, and reduced parking demand.

Those parking spaces in the garages probably cost $75,000 per space to build. Anything they can do to reduce demand for parking while still getting people to the airport will reduce the need for additional parking, and keep rates from going up.

MP





Anonymous

said...

"Those parking spaces in the garages probably cost $75,000 per space to build."

Wouldn't DOUBT it? When you start factoring in all the PLA's ( Project Labor Agreements ) city gov's BUCKLE to the unions for, they make it sound like a 'bargain' by the time they're done w/ you.

Good luck balancing (2) 50 lb. suitcases and a carry-on bag strapped to your bike from "close in". In the RAIN. Wives and elderly travellers really appreciate that. You're a better cyclist than we!

And I mean, shouldn't the world be designed for 20-somethings that [for whatever reason] fail to qualify for a license? God forbid someone want to 'park' in a parking SPACE!?

Cheers,
DinOR





Anonymous

said...

Moneypits asks: "Are they (prices) going up in Salem and Ashland yet? Or are you guys still waiting to hit bottom?"

(Yawn). I don't know about Salem, but they appear to be up in Ashland/East Medford/Talent, if you can find a decent one for sale. Farms are way up. Apears I bought at the bottom in S. Oregon and also in the S. Cal. desert in 2010/2011. I did not try to accomplish that. I just followed my plan for moving back to the West Coast from the East Coast, and hit the downside in the West. Real estate prices would not have dictated my plans.

I'm not "waiting" for anything. I'm enjoying living my life and spending time with my grandchildren, and other activites. Really don't think much about what my homes are worth. Totally irrelevant to me. I just had 67 treat-or-treaters at my door here in the Rogue Valley on a beautiful night. Good kids all, and a lot of fun! That's what motivates me. A house is a place to park yourself and shelter your stuff. That's all. Most houses we buy were somebody's else's before us, and will have another owner after us. It's all temporary, as is any money you make or lose from real estate transactions.

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

MBW,

Well said. We made hot-buttered rums ( for the older kids ) and it was great to see younger parents utterly rejecting the pub-ed. shrieking notion "Halloween is the most dangerous night of the year.!"

Mummifying kids in orange reflective tape, setting them alight w/ Coast Guard Approved amber flashing strobe lights all while being on harness & leash!

After years of glaring eyes from brainwashed parents horrified you might slip a razor in an apple, is it any wonder many dim the lights and draw the blinds? Slowly Halloween is coming back! Good to see bands of older teens out and about too!

We can only HOPE they were up to no good. And remember kids, ritzy neighborhoods mean house rich-money poor people, hit the working class streets!

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

MBW:

"farms are way up"

Seeing the same thing in the Northern Williamette valley. 2010-2011 seemed to form a bottom there. Acreage is commanding a premium. The beauty of living rural is also the lack of water disricts/library districts/urban renewal fees/parking fees/etc. Pretty much just prop tax, electric, and phone. My garb/recycling curb side is $25/ month for weekly pick up of large containers.

How's the composting and every other week pickup working out for Portlanders?





Anonymous

said...

"farms are way up"

No surprise there when interest rates on cash are zero. Capital is being destroyed by Bernanke and Co. Tangible
Producing assets are key, and so is food production.

It's becoming a small planet...





Anonymous

said...

"Capital is being destroyed by Bernanke and Co. Tangible
Producing assets are key, and so is food production."

Yep. Something our friend Moneypits and others don't seem to comprehend.





Anonymous

said...

"The beauty of living rural is also the lack of water disricts/library districts/urban renewal fees/parking fees/etc. Pretty much just prop tax, electric, and phone."

Here here! I've made it my quest. Of course easier said than done when every shrieking city council in the Valley and beyond wants their pound o' flesh!?

Many Americans do this useless "if I won the lottery" exercise when fantasizing about "living in a paid off home". As have I always done, I'll be a sport, go along and say, Great! Now tally up all the because we can fees and how much will you need just to keep the lights on?

Bovine eyes, jaw drop, shrug? Yeah, try about a GRAND a month when it's all said and done. Happy now?

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

I've done those calculations too, DinOR, and yes about a grand now . Wait a few years and you'll see how those property taxes and other fees escalate to make local government budgets. In a way renting is better, particularly if you're single and have no children.
I was talking with a co-worker the other day... Just property taxes for the overpriced home exceed $6500 and increase 2-3% every year.





Anonymous

said...

"Just property taxes for the overpriced home exceed $6500 and increase 2-3% every year."

Great, isn't it! When was the last time anyone here saw a $25 PGE power bill? We used to look forward to a little relief in the budget during the summer months to do fun stuff w/ the kids. Sweet memories.

Our in-laws PT bill makes me wanna' PUKE. They won't even TALK about it any more. It was $6.5k last I heard and that was pre-bust. They're completely underwater on not (1) but TWO homes. How's the Blazers doing?

Ask yourself, if people in the prime of their earning years are 'budgeting' for entertainment, what's it going to look like when you're on a fixed income? We can go out for dinner in 'January'?

Freaking awesome!

DinOR





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Anonymous

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Is that ganda ria ( or ganha ria? )

I thought Farrah Fawcett passed away? Happy spaming!

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

@DinOR,
We've been talking at the new taxes for homeowners in Portland (Multonomah County). Just yesterday there was a break down on the extra taxes for a typical family with a $300k home.... about $550 extra per year in taxes, without including the customary 2-3% extra on home valuation.
But, but... this time it's for the kids!





Anonymous

said...

As someone who is generally supportive of libraries, arts, public education, I can't for the life of me understand why those specific measures, as written, passed.

I used to think Portland was becoming Little Los Angeles. Now I think it's more like Little New York.





Anonymous

said...

But, but... this time it's for the kids!

Had "The Onion" desk calendar and the one date had a generic photo of a generic politician delivering yet another generic speech, sarcastically captioned:

"For the LOVE OF GOD can we please stop doing (1) more thing "for the kids!"

Actually, as a teen I picked up WAY more girls at the library ( grew up pre-Mall Culture ) than I can remember! So I'm all about that. They'll come in handy when parents can no longer afford broadband and the kids won't have to read by oil lamp? Maybe we should bring back drive-in movies too! Oh the stories I could tell!?

Um... $550 is about a WEEK'S take home pay for the avg. Portlander ( so why you trippin'? ) Once we go 2 X 4 azz strapped into hyper-inflation five Benjamins won't even get you l@id. AT HOME!

Yeah, I mean, I've been fighting this money's no object mentality for like (2) decades now and you've got States rubber stamping making pot legal so they can tax it before they'll look at their own high maint. ways.

So many of us are done fighting. Here's a no-sh!tter. When I was a kid, we'd knock out the street lights for a goof. Every time the next day a crew came out. Some nights your slingshot aim would be off. But every time you nailed it, they'd be out within a couple of days.

Finally they got RPG-proof lights. Now..? For those that think we're a-holes, just remember, we said these local gov's would go BROKE as early as '04.

Cheers!

DinOR





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This comment has been removed by the author.




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Anonymous

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@DinOR,
It's just 1 week pay for an average person but that is the amount extra (above what they were already paying before).
Anyway, I can't help it but wonder why people don't read the little print on these measures. C'mmon! How many people live and work in Portland? Perhaps 200,000? With every person having to fork $35/year for "Arts classes" we have a mere $7.5 million per year to pay for art teacher salaries. How many teachers are they going to hire? And are these teachers indeed art teachers or an extra gig for the current "PE coach" and "English" teacher?





Anonymous

said...

C'mmon! How many people live and work in Portland? Perhaps 200,000?

Actually, according to the ( rather expensive ) 2010 Census it's 583,776.

Oh... you meant "taxpayers"..? Couldn't TELL ya'? All I can say, as a middle/high schooler when I went out for football, your folks had to pony up for (2) things, cleats and a JOCK. Two things in life you don't exactly 'borrow'. Hey could ya'..?

Every other uniform item was provided for BY the school. Schools didn't seem to have any financial hardships over that. Now we don't have the $'s for crayons. Go figure?

I'm fresh out of answers. The model I've suggested for years looks more like this: http://www.khanacademy.org/

These kids can teach THEMSELVES after 5th/6th Grade. The 'teachers' are just getting in the way. A 5th wheel that needs grease every 15 days. LOTS of it. In fact I'd just as soon these "ideology before basics" people not even be NEAR the kids! We've so utterly failed them... so utterly FAILED them. "Mayan math"? Sheeze, there's a REASON they're not around any more! Maybe they can deliver this December cuzz' I've had enough...

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

DinOR said: "Yeah, I mean, I've been fighting this money's no object mentality for like (2) decades now and you've got States rubber stamping making pot legal so they can tax it before they'll look at their own high maint. ways. "

I have always respected you, DinOR, but you missed this one completely. Two states have elected by popular vote to legalize pot--not rubber stamped legalization by government fiat. They did it because their governments have spent far too much time and money filling prisons with minor offenders who have done nothing more serious than what most alcohol drinkers do several times per week--in order to appease a bunch of mormon tea totalers in Utah (pot is safer than alcohol and less addicting.)

It will be interesting to see whether those "states rights" advocates rise up in defense of this newly arising popular will, or whether, as predictable, they revert to big central government whenever it suits their need to control the population. My guess is the latter. Nevertheless, more states will follow, as should Oregon.





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Anonymous

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I'm the oldest dude on this blog and being the TRUE conservative/libertarian/whatever, and freedom-lover, that I am, voted FOR both marijuana AND casinos, and can't believe Oregon is such a stodgy and provincial backwards old place as to defeat those measures. Guess I won't be visiting Portland, as I was going to stay at the Grange - the only activity that might have made a Portland trip enjoyable and FUN.

Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

(pot is safer than alcohol and less addicting.)

I KNOW... that's why so many people that got their start smoking it back in the 60's are STILL doing it, so you know they can't be 'hooked'?

I'm filing that under whatever. Not that I care all that much either way, or that the British Journal of Medicine says weed is infinitely harder on your lungs and body than terbacky, but:

It was just the wrong fight at the wrong time. My point was that we have economies circling the drain from coast to coast but... we managed to make TIME for 'this'? And I meant to say it was the VOTERS themselves that rubber stamped it.

Here's the thing, and I know plenty of Mormons that get HIGH so not sure where that was coming from but, these types of initiatives find their way onto the ballot year after year and voters vote them down. Then after the 39th attempt, they feel they've put it to rest and stay home that cycle. Guess WHAT... it PASSED! So tired of people abusing the initiative process.

Mark me down under putting people back to WORK, not under the influence. Of, insert poison here _____. Just not a freaking priority right now. See all those layoff notice lists swirling about the internet?

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

DinOR:

All the majority of voters cares about these days is free phones and contraception.

Last time I smoked pot was around 1968. Always thought drinking and Marlboros were better. And southern Oregon medicinal pot farms get raided by the Feds about once a week, and Oregonians voted for them. So don't count on these new Washington and Colorado pot laws getting past the Feds. These new laws will be as effective as the Arizona immigration laws vs the Feds.

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

MBW,

We have a grower locally that provides seeds around the country. The man is under constant surveillance and lives in fear, over a plant! It was also especially reassuring our former AG put Tommy Chong where he BELONGS! Behind bars!

So yeah, I get the ridonkulous nature of this.

But, like any playboy/player etc., eventually they wear out their welcome and default to the next, inevitable slide, pimp! Being in that upscale party circle you'll know lots of younger gals ( or guys ) that "could always use some extra cash and.., hey! Why just GIVE it away..?"

And I fear this is precisely where the various States ARE in the unraveling. Let's not look at our unhealthy choices, our VALUES? Let's not look at our blow habit, dining out 6 nights a week and doorman building/valet lifestyle!?

Let's..! If States were even making the effort to reign in their spending and get a grip on the solvency situation and STILL coming up woefully short then..? And how long before THAT revenue "isn't enough"? It's all been more "Crash the System!" race to the bottom bs.

DinOR





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Hmm...Inventory is down to 3.8 months while 30% of Portland homeowners have homes that are under water.

Bubble reflation efforts in place as those 30% sit and wait for their bailout to take effect.





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-JS





Anonymous

said...

JS:

Bad Onion article or not :), I have been right in my predictions before. But then, there is also a very minute chance I am wrong. However, I adamantly stand by my de-gentrification theory. I'm not intentionally smoking anything, but I am inhaling the outside air from Ashland to Shady Cove, to Applegate and Williams, and God knows what's in that! So far not a drop of rain in the Rogue Valley during this "big" storm today, and it is 9 p.m. It was 65 and sunny outside earlier and I went to COSTCO in a t-shirt! Could see huge black clouds over the mountains to the west and north, but they weren't making it over. Stay dry up there. Maybe we'll get rain here overnight.

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

JS,

Thanks, as I have yours! Blogs of all stripes are at a curious juncture. Going into '08, outsiders w/ NO interest in Portland Housing or housing PERIOD for that matter, hijacked this one to turn it into a political blog.

Now.., that we've decided to turn what's left of our futures over to central planners and global citizen elitist bankers in exchange for ever diminishing entitlement benefits.., what's the point of discussing 'politics'!?

That entire discussion has been taken out of our hands, DC cannot be saved from itself and will DEAL w/ the Fiscal Cliff however TF 'they' see fit! Our votes now are moot, our input entirely unnecessary. You get the lip service you borrow money to pay for.

Never really minded these November storms. ( We get one every year ) and they can be exciting. It's the 7 mos. of Drear that FOLLOW that get depressing!

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

Ok can you guys skool me? What does it mean to say that elite bankers are "global citizens" who will strip entitlement benefits? Does this mean the Eurozone debt overhang will require the U.S. to also take on austerity measures? Also, if the fiscal cliff and Tea Party warnings about U.S. debt being a ginormous problem is more than just a dog whistle about blacks getting welfare what about Keynesian economists like Krugman and DeLong who say that the U.S. current crazy low borrowing costs demonstrate that we can take on debt right now (but should pay it back when times are good and revenue rises?)

-JS





Anonymous

said...

Instead of gentrification I think the bigger thing to worry about are the coming "climate refuges." As climate change continues at a faster pace than was predicted we'll see drought and water wars in the Southwest. People will migrate northward in the same way that Okies went out to California after the Dust Bowl. The City of Portland is putting together plans for it right now. They're looking 20 years down the road here. What happens to all of those inner city bungalows and houses as people pour into the metro area?

-JS





Anonymous

said...

We'll know when the great migration north is about to begin when the 70-plus golf resorts in California's desert Coachella Valley stop watering. An incredible amount of water is wasted there. On the other hand, perhaps those golf courses will get the only water that is left in order to save the tourist industry. Climate is an interesting thing. A hundred years ago, the Willamette in Portland would freeze over in the winter. Rogue Valley finally had some rain overnight.

--Movedbackwest





Anonymous

said...

I think desalinization plants will arise in CA before you have mass migration to the NW.





Anonymous

said...

JS,

No dog 'whistles' here! My understanding is the majority added to the FS program and hastily approved ( can't say rubber stamped ) SSDI lottery winners have been WHITE!

In terms of elitist, global citizen bankers just look to Buffet, Soros and Immelt's above the law actions to name a few. Warren may stump for greater taxation ( all the while his accountants FIGHT the IRS tooth & nail over an outstanding tax bill! ) We all know about GE's non-existent one and Soros' one-time HF exemption.

And not to be a crashing bore, but as this and other BB's have long noted, to date, not (1) crooked Evil Mega Banker has seen prison time.

DinOR





Anonymous

said...

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Maybe I'm jaded but I just assume that the guy sticking up a gas station will get more time than the guy who steals billions from pensioners. My personal philosophy is stay out of debt, save, and live beneath my means. I figure the rest will take care of itself.

As for desalinization plants how many of those are we going to build in Texas, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada? Atlanta's water supply is already at historic lows and demand will double there over the next few decades.

-JS





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