Sunday, January 2, 2011

2011 - How Low Will We Go?

So here's your chance to call it as you see it for 2011.

Will median home prices in Portland and Oregon be higher or lower next year at this time?

Based on the various home price indices out there, Portland home prices have lost at least 5% to as much as 9% year over year (depending on the home price index method you want to use).

How much will median home prices increase or decrease in 2011?

Why? Why not? What will be some of the key drivers?

For a little perspective, here is a chart of Case-Shiller prices 2007- present (since the bubble burst in the Portland housing market):


Here are the Alt-A and Option-ARM loans headed for reset/recast:


And here are a few lightweights providing their outlook for 2011:

The Home Buying Institute


Peter Schiff

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas


Gary Shilling

Nouriel Roubini

The Automatic Earth


CNN

Bloomberg


Forbes

Charles Hugh Smith


The Wall St Journal


Mish


CNBC

Calculated Risk

Denninger

James Quinn


ZeroHedge



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