S&P / Case Shiller Confirms The Obvious

“Another weak report; weaker than last month. The national index is down 1.5% from the third quarter of last year and 15 of 20 cities are down over the last 12 months. Other than Tampa, FL, there are no new lows this month but many analysts will argue that a double dip will be confirmed before Spring.

While some of the bad numbers may reflect the end of the government’s tax incentive for first time homebuyers, there are other problems weighing on the housing market.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. “The national economy is certainly the number one issue for housing.

Additionally, there is a large supply of houses on the market and further, hidden, supply due to delinquent mortgages, pending foreclosures or vacant homes. New construction is running at less than half the pace needed to meet normal demand, so a sustained recovery could be a ways off.” “Looking deeper into the data, in the monthly indices, 18 MSAs and both Composites were down in September over August.

This is worse than August when 15 were down month-to-month. The only two which weren’t down in September were Las Vegas, which managed to stay a touch above the low set in July, and Washington DC. Overall, there are few, if any, good numbers in this month’s data.”

The Short Term View:


The Longer Term View:





Top 20 City by City View:


Sources and Further Reading:

S&P / Case Shiller

Financial Sense

Calculated Risk

ZeroHedge


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JPM Chase vs FDIC over WaMu Garbage. Freddie Mac Raises Rate Fees and Downpayment Requirements, Condo Associations Getting Impatient With Banks

Here are a few quick updates on signs of more turbulence and change in the housing market. These types of issues will soon find their way to Portland's ice cold housing market as well:

• JPM Chase accused of re-writing history by the FDIC and some analysis on the topic
  
  
• Freddie Mac now requires 25% down payment to avoid PMI, and a must read analysis Are Rates Hitting Bottom?
  
  
• Condo Associations are losing their patience with banks delaying foreclosure

Portland RMLS Market Action Report – October 2010

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report this week and the median sale price for October 2010 was $233,500; this is a 5% decrease from the median sale price for October 2009.

The Portland residential real estate market peaked in August 2007 with a median sale price of $302,000. Prices have now fallen 23% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 10.7 months compared to the 6.5 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the closed sales for the month multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 13,824 homes for sale; this is an increase of 6% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 1,292 closed sales during the month; a decrease of 35% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 3,119 new listings during the month; a decrease of 9% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 10% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

Vancouver RMLS Market Action Report – October 2010

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report this week and the median sale price for October 2010 was $192,000 this is a 4% decrease from the median sale price for October 2009.

The Vancouver residential real estate market peaked in July 2007 with a median sale price of $269,900. Prices have now fallen 29% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 11.1 months compared to the 6.4 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 3,552 homes for sale; this is an increase of 4% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 320 closed sales during the month; a decrease of 40% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 680 new listings during the month; a decrease of 11% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. The current ratio is 2.74 therefore homes are affordable again in Vancouver!