Wednesday, September 15, 2010

CoreLogic Home Price Index Spells Top Five Trouble for the Greater Northwest Real Estate Market

We all know by now that the Northwest region of the country was late to the housing bubble. CoreLogic's latest report shows that NW states such as Idaho, Oregon, and Washington are showing up late to the bust, and we are now leading the way when it comes to declining prices.

"CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its Home Price Index (HPI) that showed that home prices in the U.S. remained flat in July as transaction volumes continue to decline. This was the first time in five months that no year-over-year gains were reported. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales showed no change in July 2010 compared to July 2009.

June 2010 HPI showed a 2.4 percent* year-over-year gain compared to June 2009. 36 states experienced price declines in July, twice the number in May and the highest number since last November when prices nationally were still declining."




"The top five states with the greatest depreciation, including distressed sales, were Idaho (-12.6 percent), Alabama (-9.7 percent), Utah (-5.6 percent), Oregon (-4.8 percent) and Washington (-4.3 percent)."




"Excluding distressed sales, the top five states with the greatest depreciation were: Idaho (-9.9 percent), Michigan (-6.7 percent), Arizona (-5.6 percent), Nevada (-4.8 percent) and Oregon (-3.8 percent)."



Whether your sale is distressed or you are holding out for bubble era pricing, it's become obvious that if you are going to sell a property, you're going to end up settling for an ever lower price the longer you wait to pull the trigger. Plan accordingly if you are trying to sell a home these days in the great Northwest. Sell now or be priced in forever!

If you're a potential buyer? My best advice is that you keep your powder dry, pay off any existing debts, stop borrowing money, and save as much as you can. Real home prices in OR, WA, ID have nowhere to go but downward as the pool of greater fools has all but evaporated at this juncture. Prudence takes immense patience in today's real estate game.

The days of EZ bank loans are long gone. All that matters now are savings and real wages when it comes to buying real estate. When the cost of capital funds are cheap, the capital asset appreciates in value. When the cost of capital funds become expensive, the capital asset declines in value. We are in the midst of a generational shift in that equation.

Equity's a cold hard bitch when it turns negative...


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