Thursday, April 29, 2010

Forbes: Portland Real Estate Market Ranked 3rd Highest in Nation for Downside Risk

Forbes Magazine recently published "Tomorrow's Real Estate Trouble Spots" and the Portland area market ranks 3rd in the nation on their top 10 list of real estate with severe downside risk going forward. Eugene-Springfield ranks 9th in the nation on the list:

"While metros like Miami, Las Vegas and Los Angeles have gained notoriety for plummeting home prices, it's not those markets that have the most to worry about now. These new housing trouble spots, most of which saw home prices peak after the national average, are set to see major price corrections in the next year. To identify them, Local Market Monitor, a Cary, N.C.-based real estate research firm found the Metropolitan Statistical Areas where it forecast the biggest average-home-price drops in the next 12 months"

As many have noted, Portland was late to the housing bubble party by two years, but it will not avoid the hangover -regardless of the "urban planning" argument tossed around by so many. Even those from the NW interviewed in the Forbes article throw it up like a magic shield that will prevent bad loans from ever defaulting. Hipster influx be damned. Jobs, wages, and real cash flow are all important now that the magic potion of easy real estate loans has vaporized.

The Forbes not so rosy conclusion: Portland's real estate market has another 31% to drop from here, and we will see prices drop 9% in the next 12 months alone. The Eugene-Springfield market has another 21% to decline, and can expect an 8% hair cut in real estate prices over the coming year.

For those who've been paying attention, much of this decline will be predicated by the plethora of Alt-A and Option-ARM loans originated in the NW between 2005 and 2007. The majority of these types of loans have a 5 year reset/recast built into the original mortgage. Expect Portland's market to go from bad to worse between 2010 and 2012 as a result.


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