Rent concessions prevalent at 'luxury' apartments

From the DJC:

As the economy continues to slump, owners of high-end apartments are offering sweetheart deals – including free rent – to prospective tenants in order to stay competitive.
There’s concern, however, that months of that practice will have far-reaching consequences for building owners.
Gary Winkler, a senior broker for multifamily investments for Colliers International, said concessions are purely a short-term fix. If unemployment continues to stay high, he said, property owners may start cutting their rental rates, and do away with concessions entirely.

Agent503 has a rundown of who is offering big concessions. The average is two months free rent (16% reduction in effective rental rate).

Remember when Realtors said rents would skyrocket because everyone would be renting rather than buying?

Vancouver CRE vacancy rate reaches 17%

Last week I mentioned my surprise when The Columbian offered up an objective look at the Vancouver market.
Well, they did it again. This time it is about the sagging commercial and industrial real estate sectors.
From the Columbian:

On top of the recent lumps taken by area home sellers, Clark County's commercial real estate market is beginning to feel the pain of recession.

The evidence is growing as "space for lease" posters around the county signal increasing office, retail and industrial vacancies. And similar to the decline of the once-robust housing market, rising commercial vacancies push down property values and put building owners in danger of mortgage delinquency.

High vacancies also curtail future development, with banks reluctant to lend on new construction, said Roger Qualman, executive vice president of NAI Norris Beggs & Simpson commercial real estate firm.

"There's not going to be much new construction for a while," Qualman said...

Delayed projects in downtown Vancouver include the proposed $160 million Riverwest mixed-use project and the $17 million The Luxe, a six-story office building proposed by local developer Elie Kassab. Scarce commercial lending thwarted his original plans to break ground last year on the building, said Kassab, president of Vancouver-based Prestige Development.

"Financing for commercial real estate is nonexistent, right now," he said...

"Most people would tell you we're dragging along the bottom of the market," Qualman said.

He does not expect the Clark County commercial real estate market to reach full recovery until 2011 or 2012.

"We're waiting for the stock market to perk up and businesses to start making money, recovery in new home construction and employment," Qualman said. "We're waiting for something to lead us out of the recessionary time."

Case-Shiller Index unchanged from last month

The S&P Case-Shiller Index is based on observed changes in home prices. It is designed to measure the increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate.

For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding any previous sale for the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired and are considered a “repeat sale.” Sales pairs are designed to yield the price change for the same house, while holding the quality and size of each house constant.

Sales pairs from the following counties are included in the Portland index: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, Clark (WA), and Skamania (WA).

The first graph shows all historical data for Portland, Seattle, and the 10 city index. The Portland residential real estate market has fallen 16.3% in the last year.

The second graph highlights the changes since the Federal Reserve stopped lowering interest rates in June of 2003. The Portland index is currently at 146.97; a decline of 21.2% since the market peak. The last time the index was this low was May of 2005.

The final graph shows the year over year percent change since June of 2003.

Bend real estate off 43% since peak

The Central Oregon Realtors Association (CORA) released their quarterly data this month.


Bend’s average sale price for the second quarter of 2009 was $253,400; down 32% from the same quarter the year prior. The Bend market peaked in the third quarter 2007 and prices have fallen 43% since then.



Please note that the median price is year-to-date.



363 homes sold during the quarter; up 15% from the same quarter the year prior.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 18% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

Dick's Sporting Goods fills the gap left by Joe's

From the DJC:

Dick's Sporting Goods has officially signed a lease for space formerly occupied by Joe's at Orenco Station in Hillsboro. The space became available when Joe's filed for bankruptcy in March.

From the Bend Bulletin:

Dick’s Sporting Goods has begun a $1.3 million renovation of the former home of Joe’s Sports, Outdoors & More — formerly G.I. Joe’s — in the Cascade Village Shopping Center, according to a building permit filed last month with the city of Bend.
The Pittsburgh-based sporting goods chain is scheduled to take possession of the building Oct. 9.

The Oregonian has a little more detail:

A Pittsburgh-based sporting goods giant is gearing up to open six more stores in Oregon, taking over spaces once occupied by the now-defunct Joe's.

Dick's Sporting Goods Inc., which has nearly 400 stores in 39 states, currently has only one Oregon location, in Tigard. The new stores -- in Gresham, Tualatin, Hillsboro, Salem, Eugene and Bend -- go on-line this fall.

Portland developer defaults

From the Oregonian:

John Beardsley, known for renovating historic downtown buildings, is Portland's first major commercial developer to see his properties move toward foreclosure amid growing problems nationwide in commercial real estate.
Since May 1, lenders have filed default notices -- the first step in a foreclosure -- on 10 properties owned by Beardsley's companies. The defaults cover loans and sales contracts originally signed for $58 million and taken out during the real estate bubble between 2003 and 2007, according to Multnomah County property and court records
Beardsley also owes the county $354,000 in back taxes, according to county records.
Until recently, Portland had largely avoided the depths of the commercial real estate problems seen in other cities. Nationally, the Federal Reserve reported that commercial real estate delinquencies are jumping quickly and hit 6.4 percent in the first quarter, the highest rate since the early 1990s.
But Beardsley's defaults and developer Tom Moyer's recent decision to halt construction of his 32-story office and condo tower, Park Avenue West, show Portland is following the same trajectory in commercial real estate as it did in the housing market: tracking national trends but arriving later to the recession.
"The bottom fell out of the market," Beardsley said. "I'm a reality of it. Tom Moyer's a reality of it. It's a very sobering time. ... This is significantly worse than the 1980s."
"To be a developer you have to be an optimist," Beardsley said. "But you cannot deny reality. There is no new money in the marketplace at all. And there's not going to be any money for a long time."

June metro area unemployment rates

From the Oregon Employment Department:

Eugene Market Action Report - June 2009

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the June Market Action Report and the median sale price for June 2009 was $209,600 this is a 6% decrease from the median sale price for June 2008.

The Eugene residential real estate market peaked in June 2007 with a median sale price of $243,300. Prices have now fallen 14.0% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) is at 6.8 months compared to the 8.1 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.



The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 1,992 homes for sale; this is an increase of 22% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 293 closed sales during the month; a decrease of 14% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 560 new listings during the month; a decrease of 23% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 21% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

An honest article from the Columbian

The Columbian has been one of the worst cheerleaders in the area but they finally offered us a more balanced look at the market.

From the Columbian:

Clark County's housing market could be three to five years from returning to normal, a panel of top-selling Realtors said Wednesday.
June saw a 13.8 percent increase in sales from a year ago in Clark County, the first monthly year-over-year increase here in more than two years. An $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers could continue to boost sales for the next couple of months, said Noah Blanton, president of Vancouver-based Stewart Title. "I think we'll have a fairly active summer," Blanton said. But Blanton and some others expected a full-fledged housing recovery would be another 36 months to 48 months down the road. Market improvement depends on reducing a glut of properties in or on the brink of foreclosure. It also depends on bringing back jobs — an estimated 5,300 — that were lost in the county in the 12 months through June....
For the first half of the year, Clark County ranked No. 1 out of Washington's 39 counties for foreclosure filings, with one out of every 113 households in some stage of foreclosure, California-based RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.Clark County reported filings on 500 properties in June, up from 498 in May, and an increase of 79.9 percent from June 2008, when 278 foreclosures were filed....
Some said it could be at least three years before building pencils out for Clark County's new home builders.Others see it as a way to get the economic ball rolling again, said Sandy Scott, of Coldwell Banker, Barbara Sue Seal.Scott is marketing Ridgefield's Pioneer Canyon development, with homes starting at $169,000."I really believe we need to start building again," she said. "Clark County depends on building."

Vancouver RMLS Market Action Report – June 2009

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report and the median sale price for June 2009 was $212,500 this is a 15% decrease from the median sale price for June 2008.

The Vancouver residential real estate market peaked in July 2007 with a median sale price of $269,900. Prices have now fallen 21% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 7.9 months compared to the 12.6 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 3,792 homes for sale; this is a decrease of 28% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 480 closed sales during the month; an increase of 15% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 983 new listings during the month; a decrease of 23% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 5% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

A few quick comments:

The drop in inventory is amazing. There was no seasonal increase this year, this is helping the supply/demand ratios but it doesn't really indicate the market will recover soon because so many people have given up on the sell side. Inventory is dropping and sales are at all-time lows which indicates the homes are not leaving the market via a closed sale.

Closed sales increased when compared to the same month last year. This is only the third time this has happened since January 2006 (54 months). It can't fall forever so this maybe a bottoming in respect to sales volume. Too early to tell for sure but it can't stay at historic lows forever.

The last time the median price was this low was March 2005.

Portland RMLS Market Action Report – June 2009

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report this week and the median sale price for June 2009 was $249,900; this is a 13.5% decrease from the median sale price for June 2008.

The Portland residential real estate market peaked in August 2007 with a median sale price of $302,000. Prices have now fallen 17.3% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 8.2 months compared to the 9.5 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 14,563 homes for sale; this is a decrease of 18.3% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 1,776 closed sales during the month; a decrease of 5.4% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 4.257 new listings during the month; a decrease of 18.3% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 19.0% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

June home prices stable

From the Oregonian:

The good news: The Portland-area housing market didn't get worse in June.
The rest of the news: It didn't get much better.
The region's tumbling median home price has leveled off this summer and hovered in June around $250,000, down 17 percent from its peak, according to a Regional Multiple Listing Service report released Wednesday.
The inventory of unsold homes -- the key measure of supply and demand -- improved more than usual in June.
Thanks to an uptick from record-low sales this winter, the inventory dropped from 19 months in January to eight months in June.
"There's likely an enormous amount of hidden inventory in the market," said Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economist. "The market is so relatively weak to what people's expectations are."
For evidence of a "shadow inventory," Duy points to the slower than normal growth in listings this summer.
The real estate market is cyclical, with slow winter months followed by spring thaw
and a hot summer. During that cycle, the number of homes listed typically expands steadily from January to July.
In 2008, listings grew from January to June by 28 percent. In 2007, it was 40 percent, and in 2006, 52 percent.
This year, the rise is just 3 percent.
Economist Bill Conerly of Lake Oswego is more upbeat than Duy. He sees signs the market is bouncing back, pointing to a rise in closed and pending sales thanks in part to more affordable home prices. "People who had been on the sideline saying, 'If I'm going to buy, this is the time,'" he said.
Duy, who tends to be more pessimistic than other Oregon economists, says Portland-area home prices are still too high compared with household incomes. He said he expects Portland-area home prices to fall another 10 to 20 percent.

I'll post my charts on Monday.

John Ross developer cuts prices by 30%

From the Portland Business Journal:

Gerding Edlen Development Co. has added the John Ross condominiums at South Waterfront to a list of projects with slashed prices.
The company cut prices by approximately one-third in a bid to find buyers for 110 unsold units in the next 18 months.
Realty Trust Group, which is marketing the John Ross for the ownership group, announced the price cuts Wednesday. Patrick Clark, principal broker for the John Ross, said the new prices reflect the reality of the residential market, which includes approximately 800 unsold luxury condominiums around downtown Portland.
A sample of units available at John Ross includes a 12th floor studio now available for $199,999, down $100,000. The new price translates to $311 per square foot.
A 30th-floor penthouse unit with three bedrooms and three and a half bathrooms now is available for $1.5 million, down nearly $1 million. The new price is equal to $434 per square foot.
Realty Trust notified John Ross homeowners of the decision to cut prices on July 10.
“Without question, the overall state of the economy has significantly impacted sales and closing activity,” it told previous buyers.

One in four Oregonians is underemployed

From the Bend Bulletin:

In California and a handful of other states, one out of every five people who would like to be working full time is not now doing so.
It is a startling sign of the pain that the Great Recession is inflicting, and it is largely missed by the official, oft-repeated statistics on unemployment. The national unemployment rate has risen to 9.5 percent, the highest level in more than a quarter-century. Yet it still excludes all those who have given up looking for a job and those part-time workers who want to be working full time.
Include them — as the Labor Department does when calculating its broadest measure of the job market — and the rate reached 23.5 percent in Oregon this spring, according to a New York Times analysis of state-by-state data. It was 21.5 percent in both Michigan and Rhode Island and 20.3 percent in California. In Arizona, Tennessee, Indiana, Nevada and Ohio, the rate was just under 20 percent this spring and may have since surpassed it.
Almost nobody believes that unemployment has finished rising, either. On Tuesday, President Barack Obama said he expected it to “tick up for several months.”

KOIN and Teufel Nursery file bankruptcy

From the Portland Business Journal:

The owner of Portland’s channel 6 KOIN TV station will enter Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings in Delaware this week, under a financial restructuring plan with debt holders.
Los Angeles-based New Vision Television, which also owns KBNZ in Bend, will eliminate $400 million in debt and guaranteed obligations and obtain $30 million in new financing under the agreement with first- and second-lien debt holders, the company announced. In exchange, debt holders will receive equity in the company and seats on its board of directors.

This station gets bought and sold every year. I feel sorry for the few employees who work there.

In other bankruptcy news Teufel Nursery filed bankruptcy last month. There isn't a story on it yet but a Google search confirms the rumors. I was really surprised by this because they sold a 100 acre nursery to Polygon Homes at the peak of the bubble.

Oregon unemployment rate unchanged at 12.2%

From the Oregon Employment Department:

Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 12.2 percent in June, the same as the revised May figure of 12.2 percent.
Despite remaining unchanged between May and June, Oregon’s unemployment rate
was up substantially from June 2008 when the rate was 5.9 percent.
The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent in June, from 9.4
percent in May.
In June, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 7,200 jobs, following a drop of 1,600 (as revised) in May. This marked the 11th consecutive month of decline for this measure of employment.

Recession impacts Oregon's cattle industry

From the Oregonian:

"It's never been easy to make a living," says Ken Holliday, who runs a 10,000-acre ranch near John Day. "But now, you kind of wonder why you even do it."

In Oregon's vast cattle country, where life yields to nature's whims and business bucks with the market's whiplash, the global downturn is bearing down. At the start of a food chain that ends on your plate, Oregon ranchers are trying to hang on through a sudden swing that could mean a losing year for an industry that roped $664 million in gross sales last year.

In 2008, ranchers paid record high prices for corn, hay and feed -- an investment now all but lost as beef competes against falling prices for poultry and pork. People worldwide are buying less meat. Restaurants are ordering fewer steaks. And the hides that make shoes, car seats and furniture aren't worth much in a recession that has curbed consumer lust for material things...

Over a lifetime, a typical cow may eat thousands of pounds of corn, hay and feed before it ends up at the slaughterhouse. And last year, the cost of those ingredients went sky-high.

Feed shot up 22 percent, fertilizer and chemicals went up 26 percent and fuel rose 14 percent, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. Corn, the primary diet of cattle in the last months of their lives, has tripled in price over recent years.

The high input costs are a big reason economists predict a money-losing year for the industry nationwide, with losses of up to $130 a head, which ripples throughout the chain, according to CattleFax, a market research firm. With 26 million head of cattle in the U.S., the losses multiply fast.

Even in a normal year, consumers might have hesitated to pay for beef at last year's production prices. But with the recession, world demand for beef has dropped, tamping a decade of growth fueled by rising incomes from here to India...

"This downturn is more severe and occurred quicker," Penick says. "The cycles have been much more extreme, the highs are higher, and the lows are lower. All of our industries in agriculture will have to adjust to the new economic realities that we face."

The article is fairly long but a good read.

Southern Oregon home values off 43%

Here is an update from beautiful Southern Oregon. The median sales price in July 2007 (market peak) was $325,000...

...last month it was $185,000. A drop of $140,000 or 43%

Yahoo!: Portland real estate has further to fall

From Yahoo!:

Home buyers looking for a bottom in the real estate market may have been encouraged by housing data released earlier this week. Sales of existing homes rose 2.4% in May, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Don’t get too excited – it’s still too early to say the housing market bottomed out, analysts and economists say. Distressed properties still account for about a third of all sales, and 29% of sales were to first-time home buyers, who are currently benefiting from an $8,000 tax credit.
The sales trends are telling. “You’re not really seeing a lot of move-up buying,” says Richard F. Moody, chief economist and director of research at Forward Capital, LLC. “There are so many vacant homes and so many foreclosures that [there’s] not the normal trade-up pattern that you would have traditionally seen,” Moody says.
“In light of the housing market boom and bust, consumers should feel very comfortable financially” before deciding to buy, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “They should not try to overstretch their budget to get their dream home.”

Here are the five markets that have further to fall:
1. Detroit
2. New York City
3. Phoenix
4. Portland
5. Minneapolis

Calculated Risk has talked extensively about the lack of move-up buying and Agent503 notes that half the inventory in Portland is vacant and two thirds of all sales in Portland are vacant homes. Obviously those sales are not going to create move-up buyers.

Gresham Mayor averts foreclosure

From the Portland Tribune:

The wave of foreclosures hitting Oregon and the nation isn’t leaving anyone untouched – even Gresham Mayor Shane Bemis is facing the prospect of foreclosure on his home.

In March, Bemis was issued a notice of default for a loan of $666,474 for his four-bedroom home at 4695 S.E. Deer Creek Place in the Persimmon Country Club area.

Bemis told The Outlook on Wednesday that he has found a buyer for the 4,853-square-foot home and will avert foreclosure.

The mayor said that the sale of the home was required as one of the terms of his divorce agreement. Bemis, who bought the house new in January of 2007 for $834,250, placed the home on the market about a year and a half ago and lowered the price four times in the effort to find a buyer. Its latest listing price is $655,000.

“Given the deep recession and the housing bust,” Bemis said in a written statement, “we knew that it would be extremely difficult to find an interested buyer.

“Because I was not residing in the house, the financial burden of making payments for both the Persimmon house and my personal residence was unmanageable, and I became one of millions of Americans to face pre-foreclosure,” Bemis said.

A 21% price drop to move the home.

InFocus cuts more jobs

Layoffs have slowed but they are still happening.

From the Oregonian:

A month after InFocus Corp. got a new owner, the Wilsonville company said this morning that it will be making additional, unspecified job cuts.
The digital projector company was already in the process of cutting its staff by 30 percent. InFocus said this morning that it will make a "significant" additional cut in recognition of the poor "global economy and industry conditions." InFocus said sales in the projector industry are down 20 percent from last year.
InFocus employed about 300 at the start of the year, roughly half of them at its Wilsonville headquarters. The company had planned to eliminate about 90 jobs companywide during 2009.
The cuts announced this morning are in addition to that, according to InFocus. Many of these most recent cuts will be at InFocus' Singapore office, but the company said there will be job reductions in Wilsonville, too.

July 4th firework shows get canceled this year

Portland isn't the only city canceling firework shows this year. Both Fort Vancouver and The Blues Festival have canceled their shows.

From MSNBC:

The skies will be dark and silent over Colorado Springs, Colo., on Saturday. Because of the recession, city officials canceled their Fourth of July fireworks display, a three-decade-old extravaganza that was one of the biggest Independence Day parties in the state.

More than 50,000 people usually turn out for the show at Memorial Park, which traditionally features the Colorado Springs Philharmonic Orchestra booming not one, not two, but six howitzer cannons in time to Tchaikovsky’s “1812 Overture.” But this year, the army of donors who fund the pyrotechnics have cut back, and the city itself couldn’t find enough money to pay for the city crews who keep watch.

With the recession, now in its 19th month, eating away at state and local budgets everywhere, it will be a silent Fourth for many communities across the country that have canceled their annual shows.

Your only two choices this year are Oaks Park and PGE Park. Have fun and be safe.

U of O index: jobless recovery may follow end of recession

Professor Duy released the U of O Index of Economic Indicators for May this week.

The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators™ fell 0.1 percentage points in May to 85.0 (1997=100). The relative stability in the UO Index over the past three months is consistent with a pattern of economic stabilization, but falls short of a turn that would conclusively mark the end of the recession.

As a general rule of thumb, a decline of 2.5 percent (annualized) over six months, coupled with a decline in more than half of its components, signals that a recession is likely imminent.

On the job market:

Oregon labor market data continue to be mixed. Initial jobless claims edged downward slightly, but remain at a level that suggests further declines in nonfarm payrolls.
Still, initial claims remain well below the peak of December as the pace of economic deterioration has slowed markedly. Employment services payroll—largely temporary help agencies—fell in May, but, importantly, the rate of decline is slowing. Nonfarm payrolls (not included in the index) fell by just 100 jobs during May, an abrupt slowing compared to the recent declines. It is difficult to see a substantial improvement in the jobs picture, however, with initial claims remaining at high levels. The unemployment rate, a lagging indicator, rose to 12.4 percent.

On housing starts:

Residential housing permits (smoothed) continued to decline, falling to just 627. The typical seasonal boost in building activity is largely absent, a testament to persistent weakness in the housing market; builders are finding it difficult to compete in an environment of rising oreclosures and tighter underwriting conditions for home mortgages.

A few comments on the eventual recovery:

The Oregon economy likely remained in recession in May. That said, the pace of deterioration has slowed; the six-month annualized change in the index improved significantly over the past two months, from -11.8 percent in March to -8.0 percent in May. Similar improvement signaled an impending end to the 2001 recession, and would be consistent with the prediction that economic growth would firm in the second half of 2009. Still, caution is warranted. The UO Index has not yet turned upward, and six-month change remains well below rates normally consistent with economic expansions, and more than half of the index components remain below six-monthago levels. Finally, there is a strong possibility of a “jobless recovery” as the economy continues to face structural adjustment issues that limit the pace of growth.

Case-Shiller report still shows no signs of bottom for Portland

The S&P Case-Shiller Index is based on observed changes in home prices. It is designed to measure the increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate.

For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding any previous sale for the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired and are considered a “repeat sale.” Sales pairs are designed to yield the price change for the same house, while holding the quality and size of each house constant.

Sales pairs from the following counties are included in the Portland index: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, Clark (WA), and Skamania (WA).

The first graph shows all historical data for Portland, Seattle, and the 10 city index. The Portland residential real estate market has fallen 16.0% in the last year.

The second graph highlights the changes since the Federal Reserve stopped lowering interest rates in June of 2003. The Portland index is currently at 146.85; a decline of 21.2% since the market peak. The last time the index was this low was May of 2005.

The final graph shows the year over year percent change since June of 2003.