January 2009 Case-Shiller Index off 17%

The S&P Case-Shiller Index is based on observed changes in home prices. It is designed to measure the increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate.

For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding any previous sale for the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired and are considered a “repeat sale.” Sales pairs are designed to yield the price change for the same house, while holding the quality and size of each house constant.Sales pairs from the following counties are included in the Portland index: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, Clark (WA), and Skamania (WA).

Here is a summary of all 20 cities in the Index for January 2009.


The second graph shows all historical data for Portland, Seattle, and the 10 city index. The Portland residential real estate market has fallen 14.0% in the last year.

The third graph highlights the changes since the Federal Reserve stopped lowering interest rates in June of 2003. The Portland index is currently at 153.80; a decline of 17.5% since the market peak. The last time the index was this low was August of 2005.

The final graph shows the year over year percent change since June of 2003.

2356 NW Hoyt gets a price reduction (again)

Charles Turner's flip project at 2356 NW Hoyt St took another reduction this month.

The Original asking price in October 2008 was $1,195,000.

In January of this year he dropped the asking price $45,000 to $1,150,000.
In February of this year he dropped the asking price $25,000 to $1,125,000.
This month he dropped the asking price again. Another $25,000 to $1,100,000.

Total reduction (so far) $95,000 or 8.0%. The home has been on the market for 6 months.

“Short of a national disaster, I can’t see any other shoe to drop,” - Bend Developer

From the Bend Bulletin:

The local housing market may be slow, but it’s not stopping the Central Oregon Builders Association from proceeding with its annual Tour of Homes in July.

A showcase of new and often custom-built homes, the 21st annual tour has attracted 30 registrants for the event, to be held July 17-19 and 24-26, according to Mike Jensen, COBA’s director of communications.

That’s down from prior years, but registration is still open and organizers expect more, Jensen said. COBA expects this year’s tour to feature about 50 homes, compared with 53 in 2006, 82 in 2007 and 73 last year, he said.

The show comes after a painfully slow year in the building industry.

.....

“Last year, I was optimistic we were heading toward the end of the downturn in terms of pricing pressure, but I was wrong,” said Cindy O’Neil, who owns and operates SolAire Homebuilders in Bend, which specializes in custom-built green homes. “Now, I definitely think we are scraping the bottom because it’s all anyone talks about. When all you see is how bad this is, I’m pretty sure we’re at the bottom.”

Bend’s median home price is now lower than at any time since 2004, according to the Bratton Report. The report listed Bend’s median price for a single-family home at $215,000 in February.

Further signaling a bottom may be near, a U.S. Commerce Department report released Wednesday showed sales of new homes jumped 4.7 percent in February when compared with January sales.

January 2009 was the worst month on record for new home sales and February 2009 was the second worst on record. CalculatedRisk has more on new homes sales.

“Short of a national disaster, I can’t see any other shoe to drop,” she said. “The bank part is unwinding, the pricing problems with overinflated prices for homes and land in Central Oregon has unwound substantially, so I’m pretty optimistic,” she said. “We’ve been in this downturn for almost three years, and that’s usually how long a down economic cycle lasts. Homebuilders, we’re among the first to get hit, and I think we’ll be among the first out.”

Oregon Foreclosures up 127% in February 2009

RealtyTrac released their February 2009 foreclosure data and Oregon ranks 9th in the nation for per household foreclosures.
There were 33 notice of defaults last month, down 97% from February 2008. The bank files a notice of default when a mortgage payment is late and attempts to reconcile the issue out of court have failed.

If the homeowner doesn’t pay the default balance within 90 days then the bank records a notice of trustee sale with the county and schedules a trustee's sale. There were 2,803 notices of trustee sales last month, up 531% from February 2008.

The best way to compare state foreclosure rates is with a penetration or per household rate. Here is a comparison of the regions states. A larger number indicates fewer foreclosures. Oregon is experiencing one foreclosure for every 446 households.

Bend Unemployment now at 16%

Here is the February summary of metro area unemployment rates.

Do you think Bend will hit 20%?

2009 Street of Dreams gets cancelled

From OPB:

Today’s economic problems are having all kinds of repercussions. The ‘Street of Dreams’ – a developer’s showcase of new homes in Portland -- has been cancelled in favor of a ‘Condo Show.’

The Street of Dreams is a much-anticipated annual event where visitors pay about $17 dollars to tour a street of new multi-million dollar homes.

But this year, instead of a new street, real estate agents are turning to Portland’s Pearl District, where many new condos remain vacant. Eric Stride is with the Portland Home Builders Association.

Eric Stride: “In the past couple of years we’ve been in price ranges of up to two and a half million dollars. This year our goal was to be closer to a million dollars. Obviously a sign of the market.”

Visitors to the ‘Condo Show’ will buy a punch card and then be handed a map. Oregon’s real estate market continues to look anemic. At the current rate of sales, it would take more than a year to sell everything listed in Portland.

Another good sign- work to sell existing inventory rather than build more. It took a few years and a few bankruptcies but the home builders are finally catching on.

UPDATE:
The Home Builders Association contacted me with the following:

The Street of Dreams was not cancelled in favor of a condo show. We are doing an urban edition, which is something we've discussed for many years. Based on recent studies we did regarding the show, people are interested in seeing urban luxury living. We were planning on showcasing condominium homes in the Pearl even before there were issues with the Lake Oswego site.

I didn't even know there were problems with the Lake Oswego site...do you guys have any details?

'Construction has really carried our state's economy for many years'

From the Oregonian:

EUGENE -- The story isn't dramatic when one home builder after another goes idle. It doesn't make the front page or the top of the newscast like the momentous, 1,000- and 2,000-employee layoffs at Hynix last fall or Monaco Coach this winter.

But the effects on a local economy from the attrition of home builders are arguably larger, said Elliot Eisenberg, the Washington, D.C.-based senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders.

At peak construction pace in recent years, Lane County home builders finished about 1,500 houses per year and that sustained as many as 6,000 jobs while it lasted -- more than the University of Oregon and more than PeaceHealth employ, Eisenberg said.

"When you build 1,500 homes, you are the largest employer in town, bigger than health care," he recently told a gathering sponsored by the Home Builders Association of Lane County.

Now the annual house production has plunged to about 400, and the loss of employment locally has been devastating, he said. "It's a two-thirds decline. You're losing tons of jobs."

New construction, he said, creates income and jobs for Oregonians and additional revenue for local governments, Eisenberg said. But he doesn't go so far as to recommend building houses to prime the economic pump.

But Eisenberg does suggest that local governments back off on the fees, taxes and systems development charges they levy on builders. This would lower house prices, stimulating demand and construction, he said.

Lane County saw 199 fewer homes built in 2008 than in 2007. Eisenberg's model predicts a job loss the first year of 796, a $38 million drop of income circulating in the community and $5.6 million in taxes and fees for local governments.

A snapshot of February housing starts shows a continuing decline in home building. Lane County builders applied for 13 single family home permits from local governments in February, compared with 49 in February 2008, a 73 percent decline.

"Construction -- both residential and commercial -- has really carried our state's economy for many years. When we collapsed, the state's economy collapsed," said John Chandler, executive director of the Oregon Home Builders Association.

As bad as it is in Lane County, Eisenberg said, it's much worse in other parts of the country where home builders far overshot the market during the housing boom and demand is sharply down.

"You're about average. You really are dead average," Eisenberg said, "What's going to happen to you guys is you're going to be buffeted by the national trends. If the banking sector gets unwound and starts lending again, things will get better. If the banking system stays clogged up, the arteries are very tight and you will suffer along like everyone else."

17 homes is much less than the long-run average so this will help to reduce the glut of inventory.

How healthy is your bank?

A reader of the blog showed me this website which lists the 'troubled asset ratio' of each bank. You can search by state or name and some of the ratios will surprise you.

The ratio is derived by adding the amounts of loans past due 90 days or more, loans in non-accrual status and other real estate owned (primarily properties obtained through foreclosure) and dividing that amount by the bank's capital and loan loss reserves. It is reported as a percentage. For example, a bank with $100,000 in "troubled assets" and $1,000,000 in capital would have a "troubled asset ratio" of 10 percent.

Here are some local banks:

Sorry, I forgot the link...

Portland inventory levels off

When I started the blog my goal was to ascertain whether Portland had a housing bubble. I felt the evidence was overwhelming but I too am subject to misreading the market fundamentals. Since the market peak metro area homes prices have fallen 15%-20% and it looks like the negative price trends will continue for the foreseeable future.

The next step is spotting the bottom in the local market. The housing market has many different measures and each one is important to different users. Housing starts and building permits are important to home builders; existing home sales are important to Realtors; median home price is important to home owners/buyers.

To one extent or another I will capture all of these statistics here on the blog. Building permits will be seen in the U of O index and sales volume and median home price will be seen in the monthly RMLS reports. Since I am neither a builder nor a Realtor my personal focus is on the median home price.

One shred of positive news is the year over year change in inventory. Since real estate is seasonal it’s best to compare year over year numbers rather than month over month numbers. Portland, Vancouver, and Eugene all show similar trends in inventory. The graph below is for Portland only, click on the graph for a bigger image.

Note: the source is RMLS not HUD & RMLS

Inventory appears to be leveling off, we need to see inventory levels drop before home prices will level off. We might see this number bounce around +/- 5% but we are done with the 20%+ gains in inventory.

We are not even close to a bottom in home prices but this is a positive sign that we are making progress to that point.

JP's February market analysis

Here is JP's market analysis for February:

As a reminder, my approach when looking at the Portland RMLS numbers is primarily mathematical, but I also use economics and finance. Based on both macro and micro economics, I continue to remain negative on the residential real estate market. As always, I am sure there is the one lucky piece of property that is a winner--just like at the Roulette table, if you bet on the right little square, you’re a winner, but there are a lot of losers, and you had better be prepared for undesirable consequences.

While I remain negative on the housing market, it is strictly from a financial or economic perspective. I am not suggesting that a buying a home is a poor decision, but every home purchaser should understand the risks involved. Additionally, does it really matter that your home value is going down when you enjoy living there? This depends on your personal circumstance...

Now onward to the market analysis:

I will once again start with potentially positive indicators, which remain few and quite weak. New listings are down from February 2008 (YoY) and January 2009 (MoM). While this is probably an indicator of the high level of existing inventory as well as the realization that listing in this market might not produce desirable results, fewer new listings will help keep inventory from growing. The number of closed sales is up, but with only 732 closed sales January 2009 was a low point. Both average sale price and median sale price are down from 2008, but the average sale price and median price both increased slightly from January 2009 to February 2009. I wonder just how statistically significant the month over month increase is, and PDX is still about $50k from the peak values.

One major issue in this market is liquidity. There are various measures where this is represented. Inventory in months has been over 12 for the last four months.
Note that the average selling price in February 2009 is less than the average selling price as reported for February 2006. Also note that the total market volume has been falling each February. The total market volume for February 2009 is less than half February 2007, just two years ago. REALTORs who have remained in the industry for more than two years have experienced, on average, a pay cut of over 50%. Alternatively, if 50% of the REALTORs in 2007 exited the industry, then on average the remaining REALTORs would still be taking a pay cut.

The inventory in months for January 2009 and February 2009 are 19.2 and 16.6, respectively. I am sure there is going to be a question as to why when the raw inventory number increased slightly did the inventory in months fall by over two months. The answer is in the relative changes in inventory and number of closed sales. Both inventory and closed sales count went up, but the closed sales count increased by a far greater percentage than the inventory count. This results in a drop in the inventory in months, and is what happened in 2008 between January and February.

At only 1,276 the forward looking pending sales number suggests fewer closed sales in March 2009 than March 2008. Given the current trends, it would surprise me if there were more than 1,100 closed sales in March 2009.
One final observation is the difference between the average selling price and the median selling price. For February 2009 the difference is $39,500. In December 2007, the difference peaked at $75,500. The average difference is a little over $50,000 with a standard deviation of less than $7k. Both the average selling price and median selling price have been trending lower, but the average selling price is trending lower at a faster pace. This suggests that higher priced homes are not selling well (note: this is not paired sales data, so the actual direction of the market is unknown from this alone, but Case-Shiller paired sales data suggest that market values are going down).

I generally stick to basic techniques, but there are many more tests that could be performed, both basic and advanced.

As always, I welcome your questions and comments.

Oregon jobless rate hits 10.8%

From the Oregonian:

Oregon's unemployment rate hit double digits in February -- 10.8 percent -- as the state lost 21,700 jobs, seasonally adjusted, during the month.
That's the highest jobless rate for Oregon since July 1983.
State officials said this morning that the unemployment rate jumped a full percentage point, up from January's 9.8 percent, a figure revised from 9.9 percent initially reported.
"In February, all seven of Oregon's largest private-sector industries recorded substantial seasonally adjusted job declines," the Oregon Employment Department reported. "The losses werewidespread, with manufacturing down 4,900 jobs and the other six major industries each down between 2,300 to 3,500 jobs."
Oregon's unemployment rate has rocketed during the past eight months, up from 5.9 percent last June.
It far exceeds the U.S. seasonally adjusted rate of 8.1 percent in February, which rose from 7.6 percent in January.

Portland RMLS Market Action Report – February 2009

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report this week and the median sale price for February 2009 was $259,000; this is a 7.5% decrease from the median sale price for February 2008.

The Portland residential real estate market peaked in August 2007 with a median sale price of $302,000. Prices have now fallen 14.2% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 16.6 months compared to the 10.4 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 14,226 homes for sale; this is a decrease of 1.2% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 857 closed sales during the month; a decrease of 38.1% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 1,276 new listings during the month; a decrease of 19.7% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 21.8% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

Slowest sales month yields bottom calls

January is the slowest month for real estate so it isn't too surprising when February's data show an increase in sales from the prior month. Every year local Realtors are quick to call bottom when they see this seasonal increase and every year the Columbian in Vancouver is obligated to print their false optimism.

From the Columbian:

Clark County Realtor Scott Mikel looks at pending home sales, where a buyer has officially made an offer on a house. He compares pending sales to the total number of houses for sale in the market. A year ago, the ratio was heading into deep negative territory; this year the market seems to be clawing its way back.

Mikel said Clark County housing hit bottom in July 2008 when more than 5,400 houses were for sale here. That total has dropped to 4,180.

Prices declines have accelerated since Mikel's bottom and have fallen 15%, it was only 6 months ago!

"Yes, there are a lot of foreclosures and yes, some people have pulled their homes off the market," he said. "But if we get below 4,000 that will take us back to 2007."

Pending sales grew by 11 percent in February and closed sales increased by 10 percent from January, according to the RMLS multiple listing service in Portland.

Here is a more objective look at Vancouver pending sales and closed sales:

Pending sale for February:
2009- 390
2008- 465
2007- 687
2006- 680
2005- 835

Closed sales for February:
2009- 224
2008- 294
2007- 444
2006- 616
2005- 567

"Since a large part of the economy is driven by consumer confidence and attitude, I think we are missing an important component if we just report the transfer of title that is often old news and not people’s ‘intent to purchase,’ which is in many ways a better indicator of current confidence," Mikel said

The article also features comments by local home builder Jon Girod of Quail Homes in Vancouver.

"Prices have come down enough that our research shows about 19 percent of area households can again afford to buy a home," Girod said. "That has been about the average for the past 20 years. With the $8,000 Obama tax credit to first-time buyers, home construction well below averages and (federal) bailout money in the pipeline, it looks like home building and sales might improve."

Prices have dropped 23% and they are much more affordable now.

Girod’s graphs show that housing starts spike after big downturns such as the one we are experiencing. He expects that to happen again.

"At the end of 2008, we saw home sales increase in six states including California," he said. "We tend to follow." He sees inventory and prices stabilizing and buyer interest improving.

Prices will not stabilize while inventory is high (currently at 20 months of supply), prices will continue to drop to clear out the excess inventory. Only then can we look at prices, there is no way that prices will stabilize when the supply/demand is this off-balance.

"Home prices here increased at an average rate of 8 percent a year from 2000 to 2008," he said. "That is twice as fast as the average increase of the 10 years from 1990 to 2000. The market had to have a correction of about 25 percent to get back to the average. That’s about what we've had."

I'd ask Julia Anderson to use some professional skepticism when publishing stories like this but she obviously sold out years ago. She even posts her picture on her articles...just like a Realtor.

I'll post my Vancouver market summary soon (without my picture).

C&D loans hurt another local bank

From the Portland Business Journal:

Columbia Commercial Bancorp has reached a deal with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Oregon Division of Finance and Corporate Securities, the bank announced Thursday.
The Hillsboro-based bank (OTCBB: CLBC) and its wholly owned subsidiary, Columbia Community Bank, have agreed to financial benchmarks to reduce problem loans.
“The Bank’s residential construction and land development loans are at the root of our challenges,” said CEO Rick A. Roby. “Challenges in this loan portfolio surfaced in mid-2008 and have been more profound than ever anticipated due to the unprecedented decline in the local and regional real estate markets. Fortunately our loan portfolio is diverse and the other segments continue to perform well, allowing the Company to still report net income for 2008 of $1.3 million, its ninth consecutive year of profitability in its 10 years of operation.”
The agreement also calls for the bank increase its capital and liquidity. The bank will maintain capital levels above those normally required.

Bend real estate down 45%

From the Bend Bulletin:

The median sales price of a single-family home in Bend fell to $215,000 in February, down from $233,000 in January and $318,000 in February 2008, according to the Bratton Report released Tuesday by Bratton Appraisal Group. Last month’s median price was 45.7 percent lower than Bend’s peak median in May 2007. The median sales price per square foot, considered a better measure of value, was $109 last month, down from $125 in January and $162 a year ago. There were 65 sales last month, down from 68 in January, but up from 56 last year.
In Redmond, the median sales price rose to $177,000 from $159,000 in January, but fell from $230,000 in February 2008. Last month’s median was 38.7 percent lower than the market’s peak median in November 2006.
The median sales price per square foot was $88, down from $90 in January and $141 a year ago. There were 24 sales last month, up from 19 in January but down from 30 a year ago.

U of O Index of Economic Indicators - January 2009

Professor Duy released the U of O Index of Economic Indicators for January last week.

The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose slightly in January, gaining 0.5 percent to 86.5 (1997=100). In part, the gain reflects a downward revision of December figures, due to worse than initially estimated core manufacturing and employment numbers. Three index components — the Oregon weight-distance tax, new orders for nondefense nonaircraft capital goods, and consumer confidence — deteriorated during the month. Remaining indicators improved.

The slight rise in the UO Index should not be interpreted as a sign of imminent recovery, as it largely reflects an offset from the Decembers’ 2.8 percent decline. Compared to six months ago, the index is down 10.6 percent (annualized), a figure consistent with ongoing recession in Oregon.

As a general rule of thumb, a decline of 2.5 percent (annualized) over six months, coupled with a decline in more than half of its components, signals that a recession is likely imminent.

On the job market:

The labor market components of the index improved in January, but still indicate substantial and persistent weakness. Initial jobless claims edged back from the sharp spike in December. Still, the current level of 13,865 is consistent with ongoing steep nonfarm payroll declines. Payrolls at employment services firms (largely temporary help agencies) rose slightly, but from a significantly lower December figure (28,959) than initially reported (34,337). The revisions were the result of the Oregon Employment Department’s annual review of estimates.

Total nonfarm payrolls (not included in the UO Index) fell by 14,600 jobs in December while the unemployment rate climbed to 9.9 percent.

On housing starts:

Residential housing permits rose in January from a drop the previous month, still tracking a level just below 1,000— well below the peak level of 2,600 during 2005 and early 2006.

Joe's files chapter 11 bankruptcy

From the Oregonian:

Joe's Sports & Outdoor filed for Chapter 11 reorganization Wednesday, seeking to keep its stores and Wilsonville-based headquarters open until it's sold -- possibly within 30 days.
The Oregon retailing icon, bought by the equity firm Gryphon Investors of San Francisco in 2007, has no immediate plans for layoffs and will cover its 1,600 employees' salaries and benefits through a potential sale, said John Mangan, a Joe's spokesman.

The purchase by Gryphon Investors was a leveraged buyout, not surprising that a drop in sales would sink the entire retailer.

Foreclosures changing Bend

From OPB:

The Obama Administration says Wednesday it will unveil additional details about the plan to assist distressed homebuyers.
The details will be of particular interest in central Oregon.
In once-booming Deschutes County, ten homeowners default every single day.
That’s according to county records.
Every foreclosure holds one family’s story.
But Central Oregon correspondent Ethan Lindsey found that the foreclosure numbers are so high in Bend, that they are starting to affect entire neighborhoods.

Click here to read the story.

2 out of every 5 homes for sale in Southern Oregon is in foreclosure

From the MailTribune:

Nearly half the homes listed as sold in a new report from Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service are from foreclosures.
Foreclosure sales made up 40.1 percent of all existing home sales in the report that covers December through February, said Steve Blanton of the Rogue Valley Association of Realtors in a press release.
The agency is reporting foreclosure data for the first time during the period, which included 292 sales countywide. Foreclosed homes accounted for 117 sales while "normal" sales accounted for 157 others. The remainder, 18, were "short sales" that required authorization by a third party.
Blanton called the foreclosure rate "truly an astounding number."

Bend unemployment at 12% in January

From the Bend Bulletin:

Central Oregon’s unemployment rates continued climbing in January, and at a faster pace than the rest of the state and nation, according to the Oregon Employment Department’s monthly unemployment report released Tuesday.
Deschutes, Jefferson and Crook counties posted, respectively, 12 percent, 12.9 percent and 14.9 percent seasonally adjusted unemployment rates during the month.
By comparison, the state and national seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for January were 7.6 percent and 9.9 percent, respectively.
The report shows both rising unemployment rates and year-over-year job losses for the tri-county region — an area that boomed during the 2004 to 2006 housing bubble with its heavy concentration of construction and real-estate-related jobs.
“These reports are showing the weakened state of the Central Oregon economy,” Williams said.

From the MailTribune:

As widely expected, Jackson County's jobless rate reached double digits in January.
The Oregon Employment Department reported the county's unemployment rate was a seasonally adjusted 11.8 percent, up from 6.3 percent a year earlier.
Wood-products employment bore the brunt of the job losses a quarter-century ago. This time around, manufacturing is taking a big hit, losing nearly 11 percent of its payroll. Some 220 manufacturing jobs were pared in January, making a decline of 800 jobs during the past 12 months.

From the Register Guard:

Layoffs at local RV manufacturers coupled with a rash of other job cuts pushed Lane County’s jobless rate to 11.9 percent in January, the highest level for that month in more than a quarter century, according to figures released Tuesday by the state Employment Department.
The county rate was up from 9.4 percent in December, and up dramatically from 6.2
percent in January 2008.
It was the highest level for any January since 1983, when the rate hit 15.4 percent, the department said.
The number of unemployed people in the county has more than doubled in just 12 months, from 10,493 in January 2008 to 22,351 this January, the state figures show.
“It’s a dire situation,” said Brian Rooney, local labor economist with the state Employment Department.

Don't forget the 2,000 jobs lost earlier this week.

From the StatesmanJournal:

The jobless rate in the Salem area rose to 9.3 percent in January, the highest rate in at least 19 years.
State employment officials said the rate rose from 8.7 percent the previous month and is up from 5.2 percent a year ago.
And the rate may reflect a much worse historical increase.
The state has tracked the "seasonally adjusted" rate for local areas only since 1990.
Using unadjusted numbers, the Salem area would show 10.7 percent unemployment and would be the highest mark in 26 years.
In 1983, the local unadjusted unemployment rate reached 13.8 percent, said Pat O'Conner, a regional economist with the employment department.

From the Portland Business Journal:

Portland’s unemployment rate jumped almost 2 percent in January from December and 4.6 percent from January 2008, according to information from the Oregon Employment Department.
The unemployment rate was 9.8 percent, compared with 8.1 percent in December and 5.2 percent in January 2008.

Monaco gets delisted from NYSE

From the Business Journal:

Monaco Coach Corp. shares have been removed from the New York Stock Exchange and will now trade on the over-the-counter markets, the struggling recreational vehicle manufacturer announced Wednesday.
The move comes two days after the Coburg-based company laid off all but 150 of its 2,225 employees — including nearly 1,400 in Oregon — and said it could shut down if it doesn’t find a buyer or new financing.
Monaco’s shares plummeted nearly 87 percent Monday, leading the New York Stock Exchange to suspend its shares Tuesday due to an “abnormally low” trading level, the company said.
Monaco shares are now being quoted in the Pink Sheets under the ticker symbol MCOA and the company is taking steps to also be quoted on the OTC bulletin board.
The company’s shares were trading just below 3 cents on the Pink Sheets Wednesday
morning.

I think those jobs are gone for good.

Eugene RMLS Market Action Report – January 2009

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released January’s Market Action Report and the median sale price for January 2009 was $187,500 this is a 16.7% decrease from the median sale price for January 2008.

The Eugene residential real estate market peaked in June 2007 with a median sale price of $243,300. Prices have now fallen 23.0% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) is at 20.6 months compared to the 10.2 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 1,957 homes for sale; this is an increase of 8.4% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 95 closed sales during the month; a decrease of 46.3% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 493 new listings during the month; a decrease of 5.9% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 11.2% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.

Monaco Coach cuts 2,000 jobs

From the Oregonian:

Monaco Coach Corp., the 41-year-old recreational vehicle and trailer manufacturer based in Coburg, started handing out pink slips Monday to 2,000 workers -- a majority furloughed since mid-December -- and warned that the company could close entirely.
With its motto "Driving your dream" still posted atop its Web site, Monaco alerted the
state in a required filing Monday that if it doesn't secure new ownership or financing in the next 14 days, layoffs at plants in Coburg, Harrisburg and Hines could be followed by more job cuts.
Craig Wanichek, director of investor relations, said Monday's action affects jobs in Oregon and Indiana and leaves the company 140 employees.
He would not say at what point the company would decide to permanently close.
"We have been working to find a solution," he said, "and we will continue to work on that."
Wells Fargo & Co. recently filed a lawsuit against Country Coach seeking to collect payment on an $8 million loan.
On Feb. 10, Bryant Riley, a Los Angeles-based investment banker representing a group of investors, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in an attempt to fend off Wells Fargo's move.
With its stock below $1 for more than 30 days, the New York Stock Exchange notified Monaco in mid-January that it risked delisting. The company's shares, still trading on the NYSE, closed down 40 cents, to 6 cents, Monday after the company announced layoffs.
In late October, Monaco reported third-quarter sales of $166.3 million, compared with $322.4 million during the same period a year earlier. For the quarter ended Sept. 27, the company reported an operating loss of $90.6 million, which included restructuring and impairment charges of $68.5 million, versus operating income of $6.5 million in the third quarter of 2007.

'How can you put a price on something nobody wants?'

From KATU:

The timber market on the North Coast has deteriorated to the point where industry experts say they don't even know how much a log is worth anymore.

How can you put a price on something nobody wants?

The depressed housing market has stunted demand for lumber, leaving just a trickle of business for local sawmills and little reason for loggers to harvest additional timber in Clatsop County.

Local sawmills have curtailed operations while the market slumps, sending workers home for weeks at a time while the industry waits for a recovery.

But aside from some hope for construction triggered by federal stimulus funds, there's no reprieve in sight.

"It's brutal," said Jay Browning, owner of J.M. Browning Logging in Knappa and a companion trucking business. "I really have to wonder about my company. Where will my company be a year from now?"

Browning said his payroll went from $1 million a month at its peak to $170,000 last month. He's had to lay off around 90 people.

"Right now I doubt you could get a price from anybody because very few mills are taking logs at this time," said Ty Williams, a unit forester for the Oregon Department of Forestry's Astoria District. "The markets are flooded. All the wholesalers, their warehouses are full. Mill yards are at capacity. They can't take any more logs in their yards. They're starting to stack up in the woods. It's real bleak."

The department is putting extra effort into marketing timber for utility poles, which could see a bump in demand as federal stimulus money funds more infrastructure and clean energy projects.

Utility pole timber has a much higher value than lumber, but it's also held to higher standards of size and shape. Only 15 percent of the available volume in the Clatsop State Forest will meet utility pole specifications, said Williams.