Thursday, August 27, 2009

State economists sees signs of a turnaround (again)

From the Oregonian:

Oregon's economic free fall appears to be over, but economists predict the state will likely see a slow, jobless recovery.
"Yes, finally, recovery is in sight," state economist Tom Potiowsky said Thursday during a presentation of the latest economic data to members of the Legislature.

Signs of a turnaround should become more visible this fall, he said. At the same time, Potiowsky warned that Oregon will not likely return to peak employment growth until 2013.
Oregon's economic downturn and hoped-for recovery appear to be tracking national trends, with the exception of the housing market. Economists predict Oregon's housing markets will stop dropping by mid-2010 -- later than some states but still ahead of Arizona, Nevada, California and Florida.
Consumers may feel more comfortable about spending by the holidays and businesses may see healthier profits. But Potiowsky says employers are likely to wait a little longer before adding jobs.
Normally Potiowsky's forecast sounds like a NAR press release so this is a nice change of pace but I think his prediction on the housing market bottoming in 12 months is still too optimistic.

Maybe he'll get it right next year. Maybe.