Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Yahoo!: Portland real estate has further to fall

From Yahoo!:

Home buyers looking for a bottom in the real estate market may have been encouraged by housing data released earlier this week. Sales of existing homes rose 2.4% in May, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Don’t get too excited – it’s still too early to say the housing market bottomed out, analysts and economists say. Distressed properties still account for about a third of all sales, and 29% of sales were to first-time home buyers, who are currently benefiting from an $8,000 tax credit.
The sales trends are telling. “You’re not really seeing a lot of move-up buying,” says Richard F. Moody, chief economist and director of research at Forward Capital, LLC. “There are so many vacant homes and so many foreclosures that [there’s] not the normal trade-up pattern that you would have traditionally seen,” Moody says.
“In light of the housing market boom and bust, consumers should feel very comfortable financially” before deciding to buy, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “They should not try to overstretch their budget to get their dream home.”

Here are the five markets that have further to fall:
1. Detroit
2. New York City
3. Phoenix
4. Portland
5. Minneapolis

Calculated Risk has talked extensively about the lack of move-up buying and Agent503 notes that half the inventory in Portland is vacant and two thirds of all sales in Portland are vacant homes. Obviously those sales are not going to create move-up buyers.