Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Vancouver RMLS Market Action Report – June 2009

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released the Market Action Report and the median sale price for June 2009 was $212,500 this is a 15% decrease from the median sale price for June 2008.

The Vancouver residential real estate market peaked in July 2007 with a median sale price of $269,900. Prices have now fallen 21% from that peak.

Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 7.9 months compared to the 12.6 months of supply for the same month last year. A balanced market has about 7 months of supply.

The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.

The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. There are currently 3,792 homes for sale; this is a decrease of 28% from the same month the year before.

The third chart shows closed sales by month. There were 480 closed sales during the month; an increase of 15% from the same month the year before.

The fourth chart shows new listings by month. There were 983 new listings during the month; a decrease of 23% from the same month the year before.

The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 5% from the current median for the ratio to reach 3.0.


A few quick comments:

The drop in inventory is amazing. There was no seasonal increase this year, this is helping the supply/demand ratios but it doesn't really indicate the market will recover soon because so many people have given up on the sell side. Inventory is dropping and sales are at all-time lows which indicates the homes are not leaving the market via a closed sale.

Closed sales increased when compared to the same month last year. This is only the third time this has happened since January 2006 (54 months). It can't fall forever so this maybe a bottoming in respect to sales volume. Too early to tell for sure but it can't stay at historic lows forever.

The last time the median price was this low was March 2005.


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