Tuesday, February 24, 2009

December Case-Shiller preview

From the Portland Business Journal:

Home prices set a new record for falling prices in 2008, according to Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index data released Tuesday.
The index reflects a three-month average for home prices in 10 and 20 markets and is published with a two-month lag.
For December, the index for the 20-city package that includes Portland recorded an average annual home price decline of 18.5 percent.
“The broad downturn in the residential real estate market continues,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index committee. “There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround that one can see in the data. Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with all of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines.”

For Portland, a December index of 158.50 translates to a 13.1 percent annualized loss in home values. Home prices fell by an average of 13.4 percent in Seattle.
Portland’s index means a home worth $100,000 in 2000 now is worth $158,500.

Charles Turner notes that our market has fallen 15% from the peak in July 2007. I point this out because I want to give him credit for giving a more complete picture of the market. Good Job!

I'm still without Internet but I'll be back soon and I'll post more about the Case-Shiller number. One quick observation is that we have not reached the point of inflection yet. Case-Shiller numbers are smoothed to reduce deviations so we can look for this intermediate point in our search for the bottom.

UPDATE: PDX Outsider posted some graphs for us.




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