Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Another bad forecast for 2009

Dick Riley is a real estate appraiser specializing in single family residential property appraisals. Here is his economic forecast for 2009 as published in the Columbian:

Real estate markets, like politics, are local in nature. The Pacific Northwest was the last region to enter this unprecedented recession and it will be the first to move out of it. That recovery, however, will be awhile in coming, likely in mid- to late-summer 2009
before it gets started.With lower mortgage interest rates and an improving general economy, home sales in Clark County should rebound this year. Sales could increase as much as 15 percent. That might be on the lower end of projections.

The bottoming out has begun with lower-end properties. Those properties in the $150,000 to $200,000 price range are experiencing the bottom. Many of these properties that have received minor updating and repair are seeing a slight increase in value. In full respect to all properties, the lower end had less of a value range for decline. The upper end of homes valued at $500,000 and higher is experiencing a deeper decline.
Clark County’s higher-priced homes also have been negatively influenced by a large oversupply of listings. Inventory is still at an all time high.

Be mindful that home ownership if more than gaining equity and personal wealth. Pride of ownership and tax benefits are also strong factors.
This is the beginning period to start buying. Use this time to qualify for a loan that you know you can afford. It is a good time to buy; the bottom will be short-lived. It is a natural fact that the darkest part of night is just before sunrise. The sun will rise during 2009.

A much more interesting read is Eric Fuller's forecast for the commercial and industrial sectors.