Tuesday, October 28, 2008

2008 Sales Predictions Update

Real estate sales are seasonal yet predictable. Typically 75% to 80% of the annual sales occur in the first three quarters of the year. With this we can estimate the annual sales for 2008.
The percent of total sales that occurred in the first three quarters are as follows:


2005- 77%
2006- 78.0%
2007- 80%


We can see the effects of the slow down as it picks up steam. To forecast I’ll be conservative and say that 80% of 2008 sales occurred in the first three quarters of the year. This is probably low and will result in an overstatement of closed sales.

My original forecast in February was 21,800 existing homes sales in 2008. My concern was that I was too high and it looks like that will be true. Based on three quarters of sales numbers it looks like 19,000 sales will occur this year.

I’ll stick with my original forecast of 21,800.


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