Thursday, July 3, 2008

PMI: Portland Homes Prices Likely To Fall

PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. released its Summer 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index, which ranks the nation's 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) according to the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years. The U.S. Market Risk Index shows risk further diverged along two distinctly different paths during the first quarter of 2008, continuing a trend that began in the fourth quarter of 2007. In general, risk continued to intensify in many of the MSAs where home price growth had significantly exceeded historical norms during the housing boom, but continued to decline in many other areas across the country.

Risk scores translate directly into an estimated percentage risk that home prices will be lower in two years. The Summer 2008 Risk Index is based on first-quarter Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) data.

Compared with a year earlier, there has been a significant increase in the number of existing single-family homes for sale relative to the number of buyers, even beyond the normal increase in the spring home sales season. April's ratio is the highest since 1985, said David Berson, PMI's Chief Economist and Strategist. Given the magnitude of the inventory overhang, we expect national home price declines to continue into at least 2009.

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario; CA - 95.5
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach; FL - 92.2
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach; FL - 91.9
Orlando-Kissimmee; FL - 91.1
Las Vegas-Paradise; NV - 88.1
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater; FL - 86.6
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine; CA - 85.8
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale; CA - 85.7
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall; FL - 84.8
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville; CA - 82.2
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton; OR-WA - 79.7
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale; AZ - 79.6
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos; CA - 78.0
Jacksonville; FL - 73.2
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward; CA - 72.8
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara; CA - 51.3
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River; RI-MA - 43.4
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City; CA - 35.7


UPDATE:

Jeff Kempe is keeping me honest... When I visited the PMI site I copied and pasted the data you see above. Since then it changed...but I didn't update the blog. I apologize for treating the blog as a part-time hobby, especially during a three day weekend. Below is the current data from the PMI press release.

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario; CA 95.5
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach; FL 92.2
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach; FL 91.9
Orlando-Kissimmee; FL 91.1
Las Vegas-Paradise; NV 88.1
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater; FL 86.6
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine; CA 85.8
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale; CA 85.7
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall; FL 84.8
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville; CA 82.2
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale; AZ 79.6
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos; CA 78.0
Jacksonville; FL 73.2
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward; CA 72.8
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara; CA 51.3
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River; RI-MA 43.4
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City; CA 35.7
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria; DC-VA-MD-WV 21.4
Nassau-Suffolk; NY 21.2
Edison-New Brunswick; NJ 16.2
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News; VA-NC 13.8
Boston-Quincy; MA 11.8
Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn; MI 11.1
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton; OR-WA 8.7
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington; MN-WI 8.2
Newark-Union; NJ-PA 6.5
New York-White Plains-Wayne; NY-NJ 6.0
Baltimore-Towson; MD 5.5
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills; MI 5.3
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham; MA 4.3
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta; GA 2.0
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett; WA 1.7
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet; IL 1.5
Philadelphia; PA 1.4
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin; TN 1.3
St. Louis; MO-IL 1.0


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