Monday, June 23, 2008

More From Tony Marnella

Really the only thing that people should fear now is that if the market continues to improve prices will go up.
-Tony Marnella

It looks like Tony Baloney and the Porltand Housing Blog have a fun little discussion about who is trying to misinform potential home buyers. For a little history on this topic I’ll refer you to my previous post.

Here are some quotes from his latest post:

Would you even listen to the news if it only mentioned how the stories statistics related to the year before? If the weather broadcast for the week only stated that the temperature would be 5 degrees warmer than last year, but didn’t tell you what the temperature would be for the week. How about the news caster stating that “Crime is up 6% over last year”. With no mention that actually all crime was down, except auto thefts. Would this be acceptable as a complete story? Would you even listen after awhile when you began to realize the missing information in the stories? So, why listen to those who say that the Portland market is declining. When in fact, out of the 12 regions of the Portland Metro area only 2 are showing signs of depreciation. Compared to last year yes, the median sales price for May is down 3.2% however, it is up from April ’08 4.5%.

Acknowledgement of the opportunities within the market isn’t a denial of the current market slump. Of course, the market is down from last year. No one argues that. Sales are off by over 30%. It is also up month over month since December. May’s sales in the Portland Metro area where up 17.8% over April. I am criticized because this is a seasonal trend and so, this fact is irrelevant. However, if you listen to those who are telling only the negative about the market. How would you even know this is happening? Seasonal or not?

You decide who is churning out propaganda and who isn’t. There will always be those who view the glass half empty and those who view it half full. Obviously, I see it half full. The reality is, we all have to adjust to this market and some of us are having a tough time. No doubt, there will be more bad news which will be exploited by those that enjoy doing so. However, to just resign to the fact that things are bad and ignore all that is positive, is foolish. Moreover, to try and convince people that they shouldn’t invest without full disclosure of all the market offers is disingenuous to say the least. I would rather inform people of the opportunities they can take advantage of than fear people into inaction and miss out on opportunities. Really the only thing that people should fear now is that if the market continues to improve prices will strengthen and rates will go up.

Those that do ignore the advice of the naysayers will reap the rewards of this market in the years to come. I do feel that the market has made its correction and since real estate historically doubles about every 10 years, I feel this is the beginning of the next 10 years.


By the time our metro population doubles the median home will cost a mere $9.6 million dollars. I hope 100% financing is available because 20% down is $1.9 million.

Oh and that breaks down to a 7.2% annual appreciation rate.

Here is a preview of his June market summary: BOTTOM!