Thursday, June 12, 2008

Portland Population to Double

Did anybody else catch the Oregonian article about our population boom?

You can read the entire article here but the basic story is the Portland metro area is expected to grow from the current 1.9 million residents to 3.85 million by the year 2060. For those not quick at math that is a doubling over 50 years.

The rule of 72 allows you to easily calculate the doubling time for a population. 72 divided by 50 years equals an annual growth rate of 1.44%. It isn’t that impressive when you break it down to an annual growth rate is it?

Here is what the actual growth would be year-by-year for the next 50 years. As you can see less than 60,000 of the 1,800,000 new residents will migrate here while our housing market is under stress.

In the short-run the only thing that matters is how many people are trying to sell and how many people are trying to buy right now. Everything else from the UGB to population growth is just showmanship.

I wanted to show this because the real estate community always touts our growth rate as an assurance that prices will not fall and you might see this article promoted on other blogs.

What are your thoughts on it?